OPEC+ agrees modest oil output hike from November amid Russia-Saudi strategy differences

OPEC+ has announced it will raise oil production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) from November, maintaining the same modest monthly increase as in October, the group said on Sunday.

The coalition, comprising the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia, and smaller producers, has boosted its oil output targets by more than 2.7 million bpd so far this year, equivalent to roughly 2.5% of global demand.

The move marks a continued shift in policy after years of production cuts, aimed at regaining market share from competitors such as U.S. shale producers.

Brent crude prices fell below $65 per barrel on Friday, reflecting widespread expectations of a supply glut in the fourth quarter and into 2026, driven by slower demand and rising U.S. output. Prices remain below this year’s highs of $82 per barrel but above the $60 per barrel level seen in May.

OPEC+ officials have stressed that the incremental increase is intended to balance market stability while responding to global economic uncertainties and fluctuating energy demand.

Russia, Saudi Arabia compromise on oil production

In the run-up to the meeting, Russia and Saudi Arabia, the two biggest producers in the OPEC+ group, had different views, sources have said.

Russia was advocating for a modest output increase, the same as in October, to avoid pressuring oil prices and because it would struggle to raise output owing to sanctions over its war in Ukraine, two sources said this week.

Saudi Arabia would have preferred double, triple or even quadruple that figure – 274,000 bpd, 411,000 bpd or 548,000 bpd respectively, because it has spare capacity and wants to regain market share more quickly, sources said ahead of the meeting.

OPEC views the global economic outlook as steady and market fundamentals healthy because of low oil inventories, it said in a statement on Sunday.

OPEC+ output cuts had peaked in March, amounting to 5.85 million bpd in total. The cuts were made up of three elements: voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd, 1.65 million bpd by eight members and a further 2 million bpd by the whole group.

The eight producers plan to fully unwind one element of those cuts – 2.2 million bpd – by the end of September. For October, they started removing the second layer of 1.65 million bpd with the increase of 137,000 bpd.The eight producers will meet again on Nov. 2.

With inputs from agencies