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NEW DELHI: With the summer monsoon gradually advancing into other states after making onset over Kerala on June 4, IMD Friday said forecasts indicated “further strengthening” of El Niño conditions during the season, which call for immediate action on the ground as kharif sowing is underway.“El Niño conditions are present over equatorial Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen during monsoon season,” IMD said, while announcing the advent of the condition — warming of ocean waters in central and eastern equatorial Pacific — that’s invariably linked with weak monsoon in India.The latest forecast could be used by policymakers to immediately activate contingency measures in all 197 districts across the country that have been identified by the agriculture ministry as most vulnerable to impacts of El Niño.
Contingency measures may be activated in all 197 districts
The latest forecast could be used by policymakers to immediately activate contingency measures in all 197 districts across the country that have been identified by the agriculture ministry as most vulnerable to impacts of El Niño. Contingency measures in such a situation largely include promotion of drought-tolerant crop varieties, less water-consuming crops such as millets and pulses, weather-based agro-advisory services, efficient water management and location-specific adaptation strategies to minimise agricultural losses. IMD’s forecast comes from its Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) which is a state-of-the art dynamical prediction model adopted by the met department for long-range forecasting of the Indian monsoon.“The latest MMCFS plume and probability forecasts suggest moderate to strong El Niño conditions during the southwest monsoon season,” said the Met department, noting that it will continue to closely monitor the evolving ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) conditions and provide monthly updates.
