- Opinion polls show a tight race for Hungary’s general election.
- Many Hungarian voters remain undecided, impacting election outcome predictions.
- Desire for changed EU relations is evident across voter bases.
Edited by: Alex Berry
As Hungary’s April 12 general election nears, opinion polls continue to point to a slight lead for Peter Magyar, the challenger to longstanding incumbent Viktor Orban, albeit with many voters still undecided and results varying by polling institute.
A poll published by IDEA in Hungary on Thursday found that 30% supported Orban’s Fidesz party, 39% supported Magyar’s Tisza, while a potentially decisive 21% said they were yet to decide how they would vote.
But another study published on Thursday by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) suggests that while Orban is not out of the running in his bid for a sixth term as prime minister, even his supporters are prone to disagree with him on some foreign policy points.
It suggests that a majority of voters in the EU and NATO member state — and even around half of the supporters of Fidesz — would like to see changes in the country’s antagonistic stance towards the EU. However, it also found voters were skeptical of support for Ukraine against Russia and opposed Kyiv’s ambitions to join the bloc.
Approval for the current US administration was split quite clearly along party lines as Washington lobbies for Orban’s reelection. Three in four Fidesz supporters called Donald Trump a good leader for the US, while four in five Tisza supporters called him a bad one.
What were the findings on Hungary’s EU policies?
The representative poll of 1,001 people conducted between March 26 and April 1 pointed to a majority desire for less friction in ties with the EU — overwhelmingly within Magyar’s camp but also across around half of Orban’s supporter base.
- 43% of those polled called for a ‘very different approach’ to EU relations
- Another 25% wanted ‘minor adjustments’ to the current approach
- Only 19% said they wanted to ‘keep the current approach’
- That figure rose to 44% among Fidesz supporters, but still 45% wanted either major or minor change, with the remainder undecided
- A whopping 91% of supporters of Magyar’s Tisza wanted a realigned EU relationship
- 77% of respondents said they supported Hungary’s EU membership
- 66% also said that the country should join the eurozone and adopt the single European currency
- Only 15% of respondents voiced distrust in the EU, compared to 47% in Orban and 32% in Magyar
“Despite Viktor Orban’s protracted criticism of the European Union, our new survey reveals that two-thirds of Hungarians ‘trust’ the EU and overwhelmingly support maintaining their country’s membership of the bloc,” Pawel Zerka, senior policy fellow and polling lead at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said.
What were the findings on the Russian invasion of Ukraine?
Orban has made criticism of the EU and of support for Ukraine in its war against Russia into a core campaign point. At last month’s EU leaders’ summit, the last one before the election, Orban blocked approval of a major loan for Kyiv first agreed last December.
The study found that the government’s opposition to support for Ukraine “has cut-through” with the public, which largely opposed Kyiv’s desire to join the bloc.
- 77% of Fidesz supporters wanted to keep the current approach to Ukraine, while only 11% of Tisza supporters felt this way
- Only 26% of respondents endorsed financial support for Ukraine, but 47% of Tisza supporters did so
- 56% opposed Ukraine joining the EU; 50% of Tisza supporters endorsed the idea, while 77% of Fidesz supporters ‘strongly opposed’ it
- 36% supported the transit of military aid through Hungary to its neighbor, 77% of Fidesz supporters and 30% of Tisza supporters opposed the notion
- 66% of Tisza supporters want to stop buying Russian oil (Hungary is exempt from EU oil sanctions), but 77% of Fidesz supporters oppose the idea
- 62% of Fidesz supporters even said they perceived Ukraine as ‘an adversary — with which we are in conflict,’ while 19% of them saw Russia as an ‘ally’ and another 57% as a ‘necessary partner’
“Hungary’s European partners should not expect a complete U-turn on foreign policy matters in the event of a Magyar victory,” Piotr Buras, senior policy fellow and head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, said. “Indeed, on the subject of Ukraine, there is division and skepticism among Tisza and Fidesz voter blocs about the merits of future financial packages for Kyiv and approving Ukraine’s bid to join the European Union. This suggests that Budapest won’t become easily aligned with all the aspects of EU foreign policy, irrespective of Sunday’s result.”
Which issues were the main priorities for voters in Hungary?
The ECFR’s findings also suggested that these stark divisions on foreign policy questions might not prove the decisive factors in Sunday’s vote.
Only 6% of respondents, for instance — 10% of Tisza supporters and 2% of Fidesz supporters — considered “relations with the EU” as the single most important issue facing Hungary at present.
Tisza supporters instead pointed to corruption and governance (31%), public services (18%) and the cost of living and inflation (17%) as their top three issues. Fidesz supporters, meanwhile, named energy security (22%) and cost of living and inflation (20%) at the top of the tree.
The poll, just like the Hungarian IDEA survey also released on Thursday, found that roughly one in five people were still undecided. Roughly 60% of this cohort also said that they would definitely turn out to vote on Sunday.
(Disclaimer: This report first appeared on Deutsche Welle, and has been republished on ABP Live as part of a special arrangement. Apart from the headline, no changes have been made in the report by ABP Live.)
