‘Be ready at any moment, even tonight if necessary’: France’s stark warning amid Europe-Russia tension

Amid rising tensions with Vladimir Putin, France has been preparing its military for the worst-case scenario — a war between Europe and Russian.

The scale of urgency is such that French army chief General Pierre Schill has told his commanders and soldiers that they should “be ready at any moment to engage, even tonight if necessary”, according to French-language Valeurs Actuelles magazine.

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Schill has been working to transform the French army into a force that could rapidly mobilise and deploy overseas to fight along with its allies. He has also been working on the force’s modernisation, including the adoption of drones, robots, long-range weapons, and air defence systems, implementing learnings from the war in Ukraine.

The news of the extent of efforts to prepare the military came on the same day President Emmanuel Macron said Europe was in a “confrontation” with Russia. The remark was made at a summit of European leaders in Denmark where defence initiatives such as a ‘drone wall’ and support for Ukraine topped the agenda.

In recent weeks, tensions have continued to rise between European Nato members and Russia. Poland, Estonia, Romania, and Lithuania have reported Russian aerial incursions from drone and fighter planes. Denmark, Norway, and Sweden have also reported drone sightings, with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen saying she “cannot rule out in any way that it is Russia” responsible these sightings. She said it was obvious that Russia was testing Europe’s limits with such acts.

Nato has said its member-states will shoot down Russian aircraft if they would pose a threat during incursions. In the most serious incursion, Poland said it joined Nato allies to shoot down Russian drones after at least 19 drones entered the country.

France’s 3-step plan to prepare for war with Russia

For the worst-case scenario of a war between Nato and Russia, France has been preparing its military in a three-phase plan.

The first phase would be at display later this month when a French brigade would join Nato’s ‘Dacian Falls 2025’ exercise in Romania along with 10 other allies.

Overall, Nato would deploy around 5,000 soldiers in the exercise along with battle equipment. The main objective is the operational integration of subordinate and affiliated structures under Nato command and reaching the full transition of NATO Battle Groups Romania and Bulgaria to brigade level.

This would be the first time in decades that France would deploy a full armoured brigade abroad, according to Valeurs Actuelles magazine.

With the ability to mobilise, deploy, and practise operations in Romania, the French army will complete the first phase of rebuilding the core of what Schill calls “Europe’s most powerful land forces”, according to the report.

In the second phase, the French army will make preparations to mobilise, deploy, and operationalise a full division with around 25,000 troops, the report said.

This second phase is “the top priority” for the coming months, even if it means sacrificing existing units in the combat forces, such as infantry and cavalry, the report quoted Schill as saying.

Schill said “we have all the personnel we need” for this rebuilding plan. He further stressed the importance of equipment and ammunition.

Once the army’s reorganisation under the second phase would be done, the third phase would start.

In the third phase, France aims to be ready to deploy a full division of 25,000 personnel overseas for operations, the report said.

Such a division would be an evolved version of present-day force with a reorganised artillery brigade that will have long-range fire support assets of multiple rocket launchers (LRU – 9 units currently), air defense systems, and tactical drones for deep reconnaissance, the report said.

Schill explained that these specialised assets must be modernised and tripled in both launcher and ammunition volume to be able to deploy a full division by 2027 on a high-intensity battlefield with a reasonable chance of entering without being destroyed and staying long enough to produce military effects.

With the exercise Dacian Falls 2025, the three-step plan would come into action. The exercise is part of Nato’s efforts to beef up its eastern flank along the Russian border. While France appears to be taking the lead in securing Romania, the United Kingdom has taken the lead in securing Estonia. The UK has also sent fighter planes to secure skies above Poland from Russian incursions.