6 reasons why Trump’s Nobel chase remains a pipe dream

While the second government of US President Donald Trump looks completely different from the first one, there has been one thing that has remained constant in both terms: His dream to win a Nobel Peace Prize. Even before he became the President of the United States for the first time, Trump had been eyeing a Nobel.

He was critical of US President Barack Obama winning the award, just one year after he assumed the White House. When it was his time, Trump often claimed that he was one of the best contenders for the prestigious award.

In his second term, Trump and his White House outrightly expressed his Nobel ambition, frequently claiming that the Potus has ended seven global conflicts. However, one thing which even the sceptics pointed out was the fact that Trump was unable to swiftly end two of the biggest wars gripping the world right now: the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas war.

In light of this, former US First Lady and Trump’s arch-nemesis, Hillary Clinton, went on to state that she would nominate Trump for the award if the President ends the war in Ukraine and ensures that the eastern European nation continues to hold on to its sovereignty. However, things changed after the Alaska Summit.

Why Trump’s Nobel chase remains a pipe dream

The following are the six reasons why Trump’s Nobel ambition might not be fruitful:

• Diplomatic failure and escalation: The Alaska summit, intended to foster peace between Russia and Ukraine, is turning out to be only showmanship with no substance. It has quickly unravelled into a diplomatic deadlock and military escalation, with no progress towards peace. Both sides remain entrenched, and there has been an intensification of warfare, not de-escalation.

• Lack of genuine compromise or agreement: Neither Russian President Putin nor Ukrainian President Zelenskyy looks to be ready to compromise or join a Trump-led resolution. Curiously, both have welcomed talks, but instead of working further towards any breakthrough, they are taking actions against what the Alaska summit and subsequent Trump’s talks with European leaders promised. The Russian and Ukrainian presidents have accused each other of preventing peace, and Putin’s latest assertion of his terms for peace are not true compromises but ultimatums unacceptable to Ukraine.

• Inflated or fabricated peace claims: Trump’s tendency to exaggerate or fabricate his peace achievements, such as claiming credit for the India-Pakistan ceasefire, which India refuted, undermines his credibility as a peacemaker. His claims, however, have got backing from Pakistan as they suit the Pakistan Army and the country’s political leaders in serving their domestic audience a saleable narrative, much against evidence gathered by independent agencies.

• Nature of previous diplomatic wins: Supporters reference the Abraham Accords, but these were more about formalising already warming relations and did not resolve deep-rooted conflicts or active wars — suggesting Trump’s formula does not apply to the existential Russia-Ukraine conflict. But the irony of Israel’s Gaza war is not lost on anyone. Trump’s repeated attempts and claims of bringing the war to an end soon have not yielded peace. Now, the Global Hunger Watch body has declared famine in Gaza, with over 514,000 people in its grip.

• Optics over outcomes: Trump’s actions, such as imposing and then retracting artificial deadlines, and failing to secure even basic agreements before high-profile summits, indicate a focus on publicity rather than substantive results. Moreover, he has induced a global trade tension, disrupting decades of progress made among democratic nations to such an extent that even an authoritarian regime like China has commented that the US is “threatening world peace”.

• Harsh reality of the ‘reason to get to heaven’: Trump recently told Fox News, “If I can save 7,000 people a week from being killed, I think that’s pretty — I want to try to get to heaven if possible. I’m hearing that I’m not doing well. I am really at the bottom of the totem pole. But if I can get to heaven, this will be one of the reasons.” But the harsh reality of the Russia-Ukraine war is a deeply rooted, existential conflict not susceptible to quick negotiations or handshake diplomacy. Neither side is looking for a symbolic or quick fix, especially not on Trump’s terms, despite making all statements flattering to him. This ticklish diplomatic situation signals that Trump’s peace narrative is built on illusion and is unsustainable.