Russia & Belarus may carry out false flag attacks on Poland’s critical infra, warns think tank

Russia and Belarus may carry out false flag attacks on Poland’s critical infrastructure and blame Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has warned.

The ISW’s warning is based on multiple statements by Russian foreign ministry and foreign intelligence service (SVR) in recent days. These statements have cited Hungarian sources as saying that Ukraine appears to be preparing to attack Poland Romania with drones — Hungary is a close ally of Russia like Belarus.

With the SVR’s September 30 statement, Russia appears to be “setting information conditions so that Russia can blame Ukraine for any of the described attacks that Russia itself may conduct against Poland or other Nato states”, said ISW in an analysis published on X.

The ISW further flagged Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova’s statement on Sept. 26 in which she accused Ukraine of preparing to conduct false flag drone attacks on Poland and Romania.

The development has come amid rising tensions between Russia and European nations from Nato alliance. Several Nato members, such as Poland, Estonia, and Romania, have accused Russia of breaching their airspaces with fighter planes and drones. In the most serious instance, Poland said it shot down Russian drones in its airspace on Sept. 9. Separately, Denmark, Norway, and Sweden have also reported drone sightings. Denmark has blamed Russia for these sightings.

WARNING: Russia and Belarus may conduct special forces sabotage operations against Polish critical infrastructure and drone incursions and blame Ukraine.

Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) on September 30 baselessly accused Ukraine of preparing to conduct a false flag… pic.twitter.com/06UVj0IQXZ

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) September 30, 2025

Ukraine wants to trigger war between Russia & Nato, says Russia

Zakharova on Sept. 30 said that Ukraine was planning to carry out false flag attacks to trigger a war between Russia and Nato.

Zakharova said in a statement in Russian on Telegram that “several Hungarian media outlets reported on Zelenskyy’s plans to carry out sabotage in Romania and Poland with the aim of blaming Russia for them”. With such actions, she said that Ukraine wanted to create “casus belli for a war between Russia and Nato”.

Zakharova said that Ukraine would repair downed Russian drones within Ukrainian drones in these attacks to blame Russia and trigger the war with Nato.

Zakharova listed the following steps in Ukraine’s purported plan.

• Repair several downed or intercepted Russian drones

• Equip them with a combat warhead

• Direct drones controlled by Ukrainian specialists under the guise of ‘Russian drones’ at major Nato transport hubs in Poland and Romania

• Simultaneously conduct a disinformation campaign in Europe with the aim of blaming Moscow for everything

• Unleash an armed conflict between the Russian Federation and Nato