Decoding Trump’s plan for Gaza: Why peace may still not be close at hand

The United States has unveiled an ambitious 20-point proposal to end Israel’s war in Gaza. Standing alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, American President Donald Trump said on Monday (September 29) that peace was closer than ever in the war-torn enclave.

Netanyahu said that Israel accepted Trump’s 20-point plan, released by the White House yesterday. The proposal calls for an immediate end to the war in Gaza that has killed thousands of people in the narrow strip.

We decode the US peace plan for Gaza and why implementing it remains a tough task.

US 20-point peace plan for Gaza

The White House peace plan lays down the framework for a ceasefire in Gaza and its post-war reconstruction.

It calls for the end of fighting immediately after Israel and Hamas agree to the plan. Israeli forces would withdraw to an agreed upon line inside Gaza to prepare for a hostage release. The proposal says that at this time, all military operations, including aerial and artillery bombardment, will be suspended, and battle lines will remain frozen until “conditions are met for the complete staged withdrawal”, reported The Guardian.

The US plan calls for the release of all Israeli hostages, both dead and alive, “within 72 hours” of Israel “publicly accepting this agreement”.

Of the 48 remaining hostages, only 20 are believed to be alive. On October 7, 2023, Hamas and other militant groups attacked Israel, killing nearly 1,200 people and kidnapping more than 250 others.

After this, Israel launched a war against Hamas in Gaza and has killed over 66,000 Palestinians, including more than 17,000 children, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health.

Following the release of hostages, the US plan says Israel will release 250 Palestinians serving life sentences and 1,700 Palestinians in Gaza detained since the conflict began almost two years ago.

“For every Israeli hostage whose remains are released, Israel will release the remains of 15 deceased Gazans,” as per the White House proposal.

Once the hostages are released, amnesty will be granted to Hamas members who agree to “peaceful co-existence and to decommission their weapons”. Those who “wish to leave Gaza” will be given “safe passage to receiving countries.”

The plan envisions Gaza as “a de-radicalised terror-free zone that does not pose a threat to its neighbours”. It calls for the redevelopment of the narrow enclave “for the benefit of the people of Gaza, who have suffered more than enough.”

Perhaps one of the most important points of the plan is that Israel will “not occupy or annex” Gaza. Hamas will also not be allowed any role in the governance of Gaza, “directly or indirectly”.

The plan promises “full aid” to be sent to the Gaza Strip, where famine has been declared in several parts. “Entry of distribution and aid in the Gaza Strip will proceed without interference from the two parties through the United Nations and its agencies, and the Red Crescent, in addition to other international institutions not associated in any manner with either party,” the plan says.

The proposal envisages a “temporary transitional governance of a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee” to oversee the day-to-day affairs of the territory. This panel will be overseen and supervised by an international “Board of Peace”, headed by Donald Trump. The board will include other members and heads of state, including former British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

The White House peace plan says that this transitional body will outline and handle the funding for Gaza’s redevelopment until “such time as the Palestinian Authority (PA) has completed its reform” programme and “can securely and effectively take back control of Gaza”.

The plan mentions “Trump economic development plan to rebuild and energise” Gaza.

The proposal assures no one will be forced to leave Gaza and those who want to “will be free to do so and free to return.”

“New Gaza will be fully committed to building a prosperous economy and to peaceful coexistence with their neighbours,” Trump’s proposal states.

The White House plan aims to set up an “interfaith dialogue process” based on the “values of tolerance and peaceful co-existence to try and change mindsets and narratives of Palestinians and Israelis by emphasising the benefits that can be derived from peace.”

“The United States will establish a dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians to agree on a political horizon for peaceful and prosperous co-existence,” according to the proposal.

In case Hamas delays or rejects the proposal, Israel’s devastating war will continue in Gaza with “full backing” of the US, as per Trump.

The proposal also refers to the prospect of Palestinian statehood, but as a vague possibility. “While Gaza re-development advances and when the PA reform programme is faithfully carried out, the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood, which we recognise as the aspiration of the Palestinian people,” it says.

Why Trump’s Gaza peace plan is complicated

The US peace plan for Gaza reflects a shift in the Trump administration’s position on a future for post-war Gaza. It is a renewed effort by America to push Israel to accept a ceasefire in Gaza, as per BBC.

Hamas has yet to accept the 20-point ceasefire proposal, which has many vague and ambiguous provisions. As per The Guardian report, the Palestinian militant group is “unlikely to look kindly” on the plan that says it has to give up all or most of its arms and be banished from the governance of the enclave.

It is also unclear whether Netanyahu will have the support of his far-right political allies, Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, who have threatened to topple his government if Israel ended the war in Gaza.

The plan also does not offer a clear roadmap of the relationship between the Palestinian committee that would oversee Gaza’s affairs and the “board of peace” headed by Trump.

It also refrains from stating who will determine that the “reformed” Palestinian Authority is ready to take over Gaza, noted Al Jazeera.

Also, Netanyahu, who said he agreed to the proposal, has opposed the return of the PA to Gaza.

“Gaza will be administered neither by Hamas, nor by the Palestinian Authority,” the Israeli PM said, standing alongside Trump.

According to Trump’s peace plan, Gaza would be secured by “a temporary International Stabilisation Force”. However, there is no clarity on which countries are considering sending troops to Gaza, or which ones would be acceptable under the plan.

The proposal also promises that Israel would withdraw from Gaza “based on standards, milestones, and timeframes linked to demilitarisation”. This is again vague, as it does not set a timeframe or clear standards for the Israeli withdrawal, according to Al Jazeera. 

Moreover, it states that Israel will maintain a “security perimeter” in Gaza until the territory “is properly secure from any resurgent terror threat”. But who will decide the conditions remains unclear.

There is no guarantee of Palestinian statehood in the plan. There is no deadline to end the war in Gaza and it could take weeks or more to actually bring peace.

Even if Hamas is made to agree to the plan, several details would need to be figured out before implementing. This could take a long time. Israel could also always break its promise which it has done in the past.

And if Hamas turns down the proposal, Trump and Netanyahu have warned of sharp consequences.

“I hope that we’re going to have a deal for peace, and if Hamas rejects the deal, which is always possible – they’re the only one left, everyone else has accepted it – but I have a feeling that we’re going to have a positive answer,” Trump said at the White House on Monday.

“If Hamas rejects your plan, Mr President, or if they supposedly accept it and then do everything to counter it, then Israel will finish the job by itself,” Netanyahu said. “This can be done the easy way or it can be done the hard way, but it will be done.”

With inputs from agencies

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