Putin says ready to extend nuclear treaty caps by one year if US doesn’t…

Vladimir Putin on Monday said that he would extend the cap on strategic offensive arms under the ‘New START’ treaty by one year if the United States would do the same. But US President Donald Trump may not like the treaty’s terms and the Russian leader’s conditions for the one-year extension.

The New START treaty is the last-remaining arms control arrangement between the United States and Russia. It essentially puts a cap on how many long-range nuclear weapons a country may deploy and puts in place verification mechanisms. The treaty will expire in February 2026.

“Russia is prepared to continue adhering to the central numerical limits under the New START Treaty for one year after February 5, 2026. Subsequently, based on an analysis of the situation, we will make a decision on whether to maintain these voluntary, self-imposed restrictions,” said Putin on Monday, as per Reuters.

Under the New START treaty, the United States and Russia cannot deploy more than 700 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and heavy bombers for such weapons; 1,550 nuclear warheads on deployed ICBMs, deployed SLBMs, and deployed heavy bombers; and 800 deployed and non-deployed ICBM launchers, SLBM launchers, and heavy bombers.

•  700 deployed ICBMs, SLBMs, and heavy bombers

•  1,550 deployed nuclear warheads

•  800 deployed & non-deployed launchers and bombers

| | Verification | On-site inspections, data exchanges, notifications, use of national technical means | | Force Structure Flexibility | Each party chooses its own force structure within the limits | | Original Duration | 10 years from entry into force (Feb 5, 2011) | | Extension Mechanism | One-time extension of up to 5 years by mutual agreement | | Extension Status | Extended in Feb 2021 for 5 years; now expires Feb 5, 2026 | | Further Extension Possible? | No. Treaty allows only one extension; no further renewal possible under current terms | | What Happens After 2026? | A new treaty or agreement would need to be negotiated for continued limits and verification | | Missile Defense Coverage | Not covered; treaty applies only to strategic offensive arms, not defensive systems |

White House said Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Putin’s proposal sounded “pretty good”, but she added that Donald Trump would address the offer himself. But Trump may not like Putin’s terms as there is more than what meets the eye.

Why Putin’s offer may be non-starter for Trump

For one, even though Putin has offered to extend the New START treaty by one year, the extension may not mean much and it may not even be possible.

For one, Putin suspended Russia’s participation in New START treaty in 2023. Even as he has now said he would extend the treaty by a year, the treaty has essentially been suspended for two years.

Secondly, there is no provision in the treaty for an extension. The 10-year treaty, which came into effect in 2011, allowed for only one five-year extension. That extension was agreed to in 2021, which extended the treaty to 2026. Once the extension ends, the treaty will need to be renegotiated and signed again. But negotiations take months or years.

In any case, Trump will need two-thirds of the Senate to approve the treaty, which appears to be unimaginable in today’s polarised, partisan politics.

Moreover, with any negotiations or extension of the treaty, Putin could be eyeing to discourage Trump from implementing one of his signature projects — the Iron Dome air defence system. In his remarks on Monday, Putin dubbed the development of Iron Dome as a “destabilising action” that could derail any plan to mutually extend New START’s tenure.

“We will proceed from the understanding that the practical implementation of such destabilising actions could undermine our efforts to maintain the status quo in the strategic offensive arms sphere. We will respond accordingly,” said Putin, as per The New York Times.