China’s overall passenger car exports could still rise by around 20 per cent in 2026, according to estimates by AlixPartners.China’s exports of passenger cars surged in April, an industry group said Monday, as its carmakers push to expand in overseas markets as domestic sales continue to fall.
Exports of passenger cars from China last month jumped almost 85 per cent from a year ago to around 796,000 vehicles, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. That’s up from the 748,000 vehicles exported in March.
Among them, exports of new energy passenger vehicles, including battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, jumped more than 120 per cent last month from the year before, to about 420,000 units.
At home, however, sales of passenger cars dropped 25.5 per cent from the year before to 1.3 million vehicles, marking its sixth straight month of year-on-year declines, CAAM data showed.
Domestic car demand in China has weakened due to dialled-back government support this year for drivers to switch to new energy vehicles, auto analysts said, while the country’s uncertain economic outlook, triggered by a prolonged property sector downturn, has also been holding some consumers off from purchasing new cars in the world’s largest auto market.
Competition among Chinese carmakers has also been fierce. At the Beijing auto show last month, more than 1,450 vehicles were showcased as companies displayed their latest models and technologies, from artificial intelligence-infused cars to advanced ultrafast-charging batteries.
Some analysts believe that domestic car sales momentum could improve later this year as more new models are rolled out. More Chinese consumers will also probably start buying new cars again as they increasingly adjust to the government subsidy changes this year, Yichao Zhang, an automotive practice partner at consultancy AlixPartners, added.
Overseas, leading Chinese car brands such as BYD and Geely Auto are making inroads. In addition to export growth, some automakers, including BYD, have also been expanding production capacity abroad by building factories in regions such as Europe and Latin America.
As the war in Iran drives up petrol prices, there are also growing expectations that more drivers globally will switch to EVs. One in six new vehicles sold in Australia in April were EVs, according to the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries, and BYD was the second-highest-selling brand behind Toyota.
With oil and fuel prices likely to stay elevated for a longer period, Claire Yuan, an auto analyst at S&P Global Ratings, said it would likely “incentivise consumers to buy EVs, and this will benefit Chinese EV exports.”
China’s overall passenger car exports could still rise by around 20 per cent in 2026, according to estimates by AlixPartners, with Chinese carmakers expanding in key markets such as Southeast Asia.
Beijing has also made progress with the European Union and Canada over their imports of Chinese EVs. Some in the auto industry are closely watching trade discussions between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping later this week when the American leader visits Beijing.
There has been pushback from the US against Chinese automakers’ access to the American market, after Chinese EVs became virtually blocked from entering the United States due to a 100 per cent tariff imposed in 2024 by former President Joe Biden’s administration.
