A US government shutdown looms as talks stall: How would it unfold?

The possibility of a United States government shutdown has become a regular occurrence in Washington, though in most cases, lawmakers and the president manage to reach an agreement before the deadline.

This time, however, the chances of a last-minute deal appear slim.

Republicans have proposed a temporary funding bill to keep the government running until November 21.

Democrats, however, are demanding changes, particularly on health care.

They want to undo the Medicaid cuts included in President Donald Trump’s major legislation passed earlier this summer and extend tax credits that help millions of Americans afford health insurance through the Affordable Care Act marketplaces. Republicans have rejected these demands outright.

Both parties remain entrenched, and with the House unlikely to meet before the funding deadline passes, a shutdown now seems almost inevitable.

How a shutdown unfolds

When government funding lapses, federal law requires agencies to halt operations and place their “non-excepted” employees on unpaid leave, known as furloughs.

“Excepted” workers — those performing essential duties to protect life and property — continue working but do not receive pay until after the shutdown ends.

During the 35-day partial shutdown in Trump’s first term, roughly 340,000 of the 800,000 federal employees affected were furloughed.

The rest were classified as “excepted” and had to report to work without pay.

Government functions that continue

Many core functions of government remain operational during a shutdown.

FBI agents, CIA personnel, air traffic controllers, and security officers at airports continue to work. Members of the Armed Forces also remain on duty.

Programmes funded through mandatory spending are largely unaffected. Social Security benefits continue to be distributed, and seniors can still visit doctors under Medicare, with health care providers able to submit claims and receive reimbursements.

Veterans’ health services also continue without interruption. VA hospitals, outpatient clinics, and national cemeteries remain open, and benefits for veterans continue to be processed and delivered.

Pay for federal workers

Furloughed employees eventually receive back pay, but not until after the shutdown ends.

Historically, Congress has approved retroactive pay for furloughed workers after shutdowns, though this was not always guaranteed.

In 2019, legislation was passed requiring that furloughed employees be compensated once government operations resume.

Until then, both furloughed workers and those still working without pay could miss one or more paychecks, depending on the length of the shutdown, putting financial pressure on families. Service members will also receive back pay once funding is restored.

Mail delivery during a shutdown

The US Postal Service will not be affected. As it is funded through the sale of products and services rather than tax dollars, mail service will continue as usual.

Services likely to close

Each administration has some discretion in determining which services to suspend and which to keep running.

During the 2018-2019 shutdown — the longest in US history — Trump’s administration attempted to reduce the disruption by selectively reopening offices.

Experts say these efforts involved bending rules and at times taking legally questionable steps to limit the impact.

Every federal agency is required to create a shutdown plan that specifies which employees stay on the job and which are furloughed.

In the past, these plans were posted on the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) website, but they have not yet been made available this time.

In a significant escalation, OMB has warned that a shutdown could lead to permanent layoffs. A memo released Wednesday stated that programmes lacking funding from Trump’s summer legislation would face the deepest cuts.

It said agencies should consider issuing “reduction-in-force” notices for programmes whose funding ends on October 1, have no alternate funding, and are “not consistent with the President’s priorities.”

This approach goes far beyond previous shutdowns, where furloughed workers returned to their positions once funding was approved.

A reduction in force would permanently eliminate jobs, creating more turmoil in a federal workforce already hit by multiple rounds of cuts earlier this year as part of Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency initiatives.

Shutdown protocols from past administrations

Shutdown plans submitted during the Biden administration remain publicly available, and some agencies still have past plans posted on their individual websites. These can provide insight into how the current administration might proceed.

Here are some details from those earlier plans reported by AP:

— Education Department: “A protracted delay in Department obligations and payments beyond one week would severely curtail the cash flow to school districts, colleges and universities, vocational rehabilitation agencies, and other entities that depend on the Department’s discretionary funds to support their services.”

— National Park Service: If a site is closed during non-business hours, it will stay locked during the shutdown. Parks that cannot be fully closed will have varied staffing levels. “Generally, where parks have accessible park areas, including park roads, lookouts, trails, campgrounds, and open-air memorials, these areas will remain physically accessible to the public.”

— Transportation Department: New air traffic controller hiring and training would stop, along with routine security background checks and air traffic performance evaluations, according to a March 25 update.

— Smithsonian Institution: “The Smithsonian’s National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute, like all Smithsonian museums, receives federal funding. Thus, during a government shutdown, the Zoo — and the rest of the Smithsonian museums — must close to the public.”

— Food and Drug Administration: “Work to protect animal health would be limited, only addressing imminent threats to human life. Similarly, food safety efforts … would be reduced to emergency responses, as most of its funding comes from appropriations. Longer-term food safety initiatives, including the prevention of foodborne illnesses and diet-related diseases, would be halted.”

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With inputs from AP

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