Trump-Modi summit: When the elder statesman meets the political disruptor

Trump-Modi summit: When the elder statesman meets the political disruptor

Trump-Modi summit: When the elder statesman meets the political disruptor ByPrashant Jha, Washington Feb 12, 2025 11:20 PM IST Share Via Copy Link Modi's US visit mirrors his significant 2014 trip, aiming to deepen ties amid political and economic risks under Trump's leadership.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is a frequent visitor to the United States. But his visit this week is comparable in significance to his first trip back as PM in 2014.

PM Modi is set to meet President Trump on February 13(REUTERS)

After being denied a visa for years, Modi established himself as a political rockstar with the Madison Square Garden show in New York, built a strong working relationship with Barack Obama in Washington DC, and sent a clear geopolitical signal about his commitment to the strategic partnership. And that set the stage for the last decade of the deepening ties across three US administrations.

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This time, Modi is returning to America as an elder statesman. Few leaders in the western democratic world have been in power as long as Modi and no one has comparable political experience. In a world of expansionists, despite the criticism that he may face from the Opposition domestically, Modi remains a symbol of responsible international leadership.

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This gives Modi stature, as reflected in the early invitation to White House. It also makes him a valued interlocutor on China, the Global South, the maritime domain in Indo-Pacific, West Asia, technology and supply chain diversification. And it gives him room to navigate the greatest democratically sanctioned political disruption of this century underway in the US.

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For that is what President Donald Trump is attempting in his second term. From the remaking of the American State to bringing back the old construct of US dominance of western hemisphere, from a climate-insensitive energy policy to understanding global trade only through the lens of America’s trade deficits, from emerging as a spokesperson for White people in societies such as South Africa to proposing outlandish solutions to crises such as the one in Gaza to dismantling the entire American global development assistance programme, Trump is remaking his country and the world.

And that is why, if Modi’s 2014 visit set the stage for the relationship with a particular kind of the US, his 2025 visit will be key in shaping the political, economic and strategic relationship with what is a different US. India has wisely decided it wants to continue deepening ties with this US; the visit’s significance lies in how this can be translated into action.

Political risk, political opportunity

The fact that India was keen on an early visit is characteristic of Modi’s risk-taking appetite. For there is no guarantee that the visit will proceed as smoothly as his last two visits in June 2023 or September 2024 where adequate homework was coupled with deep relationships with actors in the US system and a willingness of the Joe Biden administration to address Indian political sensitivities.

With an extremely short-staffed White House and vacancies across the State Department, Pentagon and the US embassy in India, neither has the US side done adequate homework nor is Trump known to be particularly sensitive about the political optics for his interlocutors — as reflected in the manner in which the administration sent the first batch of illegal immigrants.

But clearly, the Indian system has done a cost-benefit analysis. Given the personal bonhomie between Trump and Modi, the system is betting on the meeting going well and Indian side getting to know all the top decision-makers in the Trump world. Delhi has already sent pre-emptive signals on trade and immigration to soften the pitch. The bet is that the talks will send a big picture message from Trump and Modi about their vision of deeper ties, show a way to build on convergences and address divergences, and convey to the US side that India is willing to remove irritants and be a partner in burden sharing. Given India’s acute need for the US, Delhi has no choice but to own the relationship, live with the new American reality, and hope that this new reality can also offer opportunities.

Economic risk, economic opportunity

Just like there is a political risk, there remains an economic risk. The US has already imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, and Trump’s decision to announce reciprocal tariffs this week will put India squarely in the firing line.

Shoumitro Chatterjee, an assistant professor of economics at John Hopkins University and a trade specialist, calculates that India ranks eighth among the countries with which the US has a trade deficit. Sector-wise, based on average tariffs between 2021 and 2023, the figures are grim. On agriculture, the most politically sensitive sector, India’s average tariff on US imports is 41.8%, while US average tariff on Indian imports is 3.8%. The US average agri export to US between 2021 and 2023 was $1.6 billion while Indian agri exports to India was $7.1 billion. On transport equipment, Indian average tariff is 14.9% while US average tariff is 0.9%. Indian exports to US in this sector between 2021 and 2023 was $4.4 billion while US exports to India was $0.9 billion. From pharma to stone, glass, metal and pearls, it is a similar story; India has higher tariffs than US, and India exports more to the US than the other way round.

But that is also where the Indian system clearly smells an opportunity. India has unavoidable domestic political constraints in some sectors, but its overall policy thrust in the last three years has been towards sealing trade pacts with key partners. It is keen to find ways to reduce its own trade deficit with China. It knows that even its Make in India plans require openness. It has sent a signal in the recent budget with the decision to slash duties on a range of items. It is willing to buy more energy and defence systems from the US. And there is an openness to work with the US with the aim of a broader trade pact. The Indian system is betting on the fact an externally induced push can lead to both internal reforms and a comprehensive bilateral trade understanding, and it is better to lay the ground for it now rather than let tariffs be the only headline.

The strategic risk, the strategic opportunity

Finally, there is an increased strategic risk in the relationship with the US. Washington DC has reversed its own commitment on global issues that matter to India (climate, health, development assistance); it has almost begun waging a war against the Global South (think Gaza, South Africa, Panama); its contradictions with its allies will only grow; and its China policy is mired in uncertainty. Right now, everyone wants to cut a bilateral deal with the US but how countries respond to American bullying eventually is to be seen.

The Indian system appears to be betting on the fact that even if the breadth of its strategic partnership with the US diminishes, the depth of ties in key areas will grow. This includes possible cooperation on the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). It includes more Indian defence acquisition of US systems, more operational coordination between the militaries, and more technology cooperation including the possibility of the Trump administration relaxing export control regulations in key areas. It includes India finally opening doors for nuclear commerce with the US, especially in the domain of small modular reactors. And it includes greater clarity and coordination on the China challenge as well as the rest of South Asia.

How the elder statesman and the great disruptor build on their past ties to shape the future of India-US ties will be their real test. The stakes are high.