German election latest: Conservative Merz predicted to win and far-right to make big gains - follow live

German election latest: Conservative Merz predicted to win and far-right to make big gains - follow live

Jessica Parker & Kristina Volk
Reporting from Bad Belzig, Brandenburg

Many people we’ve spoken to in the run up to polling day worry that Germany is becoming more divided.

One of them is 60-year-old pensioner Andreas who we met in the town of Bad Belzig, Brandenburg – in Germany’s east.

"I notice the shift in my friend group. It really grew apart. There is the left side and the right side and the middle practically vanished. And the trust in the political middle is completely gone.”

When I asked him about how he views the future, he said: “I'm really curious about the outcome of the elections.”

He’s sceptical about the centre-right CDU’s ability to deliver change but believes there “needs to be a consensus between the left and the CDU.”

While he thinks it’s correct to exclude the far-right from being in government – he also said there needs to be communication between all sides.

Elon Musk endorsed AfD leader, Alice Weidel, during a video live stream in January

You may have missed it, but earlier this year, Elon Musk enthusiastically endorsed German political party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), in a live-streamed chat with its frontwoman, Alice Weidel.

Musk, who is the world's richest man and political adviser to US President Donald Trump, told Weidel that he was "excited" for the AfD, adding, "I think you’re really the best hope for Germany".

He has also spoken out several times in favour of the AfD in recent weeks, and wrote a highly controversial article for Welt am Sonntag in which he called the AfD the "last spark of hope" for Germany.

Musk justified his intervention by citing his significant investments in the country - notably a huge Tesla plant just outside Berlin.

In return, Weidel has expressed her support for the Trump administration but is yet to receive an official endorsement from the the American president.

Nick Beake
Europe Correspondent

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz cast his vote earlier today in Potsdam - a city near the capital Berlin

Two years of stuttering economic growth that's been epitomised by Germany’s dwindling manufacturing sector dominated the start of this truncated election campaign.

Migration took on added significance after a number of fatal attacks that were carried out by asylum seekers.

The election in the EU’s biggest economy was always going to be important but it has been turbo-charged by key figures in the White House administration, who have either endorsed (Elon Musk) or given time to (Vice President JD Vance) the far-right AfD.

Germany's other main parties have ruled out working with them in government.

Vance berated German leaders for continuing to keep the far-right AfD out of power and President Trump upended the transatlantic relationship by bringing Russia in from the cold and falsely blaming Ukraine for starting the war.

This morning Chancellor Olaf Scholz – who has widely been seen as missing in action on the international stage – cast his vote.

So too did Friedrich Merz, the conservative CDU leader, who's set to replace him.

But the size of his expected victory and the shape of the coalition that emerges will directly affect his influence in Germany and abroad at crucial crossroads for Europe.

Friedrich Merz, the conservative CDU leader, casts his vote in Arnesberg, west Germany

Jessica Parker
BBC News Berlin correspondent

Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has been hugely popular in Germany for almost two years.

Some German men have expressed their fears at the number of attacks in Germany involving suspects who were asylum seekers, and the AfD plans to be strict on migration.

Pew research in 2024 found that 26% of German men had positive views of the AfD, and the share of men holding this opinion has risen 10 points since 2022.

This comes at a time of rising general anxiety among young people according to a recent study by the German Institute for Generational Research. Social media is also playing a part.

Platforms like TikTok allow political groups to bypass mainstream, traditional media, which the far-right regard as hostile. It's clear that AfD "dominates" TikTok when compared to other German parties, says Mauritius Dorn from the Institute for Strategic Dialogue.

With the horrors of the Nazis further and further in the past, this is a generation that's grown up with parties like the AfD.

Prof Abou-Chadi believes that the far-right, generally, has become more normalised to the point, "they don't seem so extreme any more".

Alice Weidel is the AfD's candidate for chancellor

Since its formation in 2013, the nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) has grown rapidly and is tipped to become the second biggest political power in the Bundestag.

Founded as an anti-euro party, the AfD has since shifted its focus to immigration and Islam. Migration is a huge issue in Germany and a big vote winner for the far-right party.

Alice Weidel is the first AfD candidate for chancellor since the party was formed and the Trump administration has publicly supported her - to the outrage of many Germans.

The party has increasingly seen a shift to the far-right, but insists it is conservative and libertarian, not a radical, right-wing force.

The AfD's support base is growing among young voters and, as BBC's Katya Adler writes, it accuses opponents of trying to shut it up, shut it down and keep it out of power.

Elections for the German Bundestag, or parliament, are supposed to take place every four years – meaning the next one had not been due until 28 September this year.

However, it was brought forward following the collapse of the current coalition government and the chancellor losing a vote of no confidence in December.

At the start of November last year, Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner - the leader of one of three coalition parties forming the government (the Free Democrats, the Social Democrats and the Greens). It followed a row over the 2025 budget.

Two of Lindner’s three colleagues in cabinet subsequently quit which left Scholz leading a minority government meaning he would need opposition support to pass any new laws.

In December, the chancellor himself called a vote of no confidence - losing it meant he could trigger an early election.

The vote of no confidence is a measure that had been used by chancellors before to overcome political gridlock.

There’s a few reasons why this election is so significant to Germany.

It comes in the wake of a series of deadly attacks across the country, in Mannheim, Solingen, Magdeburg and Afschaffenburg.

Then, 10 days before the election, a mother and her two-year-old daughter were killed in a car-ramming attack in Munich, allegedly by an Afghan national.

It’s boosted support for the far-right Alternative for Germany party (AfD).

The nation is also Europe’s largest economy, so what happens there matters to a lot of other people. Their economic model is viewed by many as broken, relying on old-fashion industries.

Another issue is in its military, which is depleted, partly because of its donations to Ukraine.

Infrastructure is failing too - thousands of structures are broken, trains are late, and there’s a lack of digitisation.

And the debate on migration is a huge talking point, some want tougher rules, others are proud of their inclusivity.

On 23 February, Germany will vote to decide who will run their next federal government.

There’s five candidates running to be chancellor – the frontrunner is Friedrich Mertz from the Christian Democrat party.

In Germany, a single party rarely wins the majority of seats in the Bundestag, meaning coalition governments often form.

If the biggest party can secure a coalition deal with one or two other parties, the German president will usually nominate its leader as chancellor. Then parliament will hold a secret ballot to decide.

On the eve of the election, Mertz was adamant he will not form a coalition with the far-right AfD.

Paul Kirby
Europe digital editor in Berlin

Welcome to the BBC’s live coverage of Germany’s federal election.

Our correspondents here in Berlin and our team in London will be bringing you all the updates as they unfold in this momentous vote.

There are 59.2 million Germans eligible to vote before 18:00 (17:00 GMT) today - many already have by post - in an election that is significant not just for Germany but for the rest of Europe and beyond.

Germany has the biggest economy in the European Union but it has seen two years of recession and many years of under-investment in its crumbling infrastructure. And Germans are concerned about immigration and security too, because of a string of deadly attacks on their cities.

Will the next government take a stronger stand on the world stage than Olaf Scholz’s government, which collapsed late last year?

We’ll be reporting on how this election will change Germany and who to look out for.