In a striking reversal of the usual monsoon pattern, Rajasthan — home to the arid Thar Desert — has recorded more rainfall than Maharashtra this season, leaving meteorologists closely tracking an unusual shift in weather systems across the country.
While June typically brings widespread showers to Maharashtra through the Arabian Sea branch of the southwest monsoon, large parts of the state have witnessed below-normal rainfall this year. In contrast, several districts in Rajasthan have received excess rain, an uncommon trend for a state that generally waits until late June or July for substantial monsoon activity.
Weather experts attribute the anomaly to a combination of factors, including persistent western disturbances, a weakened Arabian Sea monsoon branch, and the northward displacement of the monsoon trough.
Under normal circumstances, moisture-laden winds from the Arabian Sea sweep across India’s west coast, delivering rain to Kerala, Karnataka, Goa and Maharashtra before moving inland. This year, however, that flow has remained fragmented, preventing a well-organised spread of rainfall across central India.
Repeated Western Disturbances
According to meteorologists, repeated western disturbances — weather systems originating over the Mediterranean region — have continued to influence northern India well into June. As these systems interacted with moisture from the Arabian Sea, they triggered thunderstorms over Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana, diverting atmospheric moisture northwards instead of allowing it to penetrate deeper into central India.
This unusual setup has helped Rajasthan receive frequent bouts of rain, pushing precipitation levels above seasonal averages in many districts.
Meanwhile, Maharashtra has struggled with a weak Arabian Sea branch of the monsoon. The strong cross-equatorial winds and the Somali Jet, which normally transport vast amounts of moisture towards India’s west coast, have failed to intensify as expected this season. Satellite observations throughout June have shown a lack of sustained cloud bands over much of the western coastline, resulting in patchy and limited rainfall across the state.
Another key factor has been the behaviour of the monsoon trough, a low-pressure zone that plays a crucial role in distributing rain. During active monsoon phases, the trough generally remains closer to central India, aiding rainfall over Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and adjoining regions. This year, however, its repeated northward shift under the influence of western disturbances has concentrated rainfall over northwest India, including Rajasthan, while suppressing rain-bearing activity over central parts of the country.
Meteorologists say the unusual rainfall distribution has emerged as one of the defining features of the 2026 southwest monsoon season, with the coming weeks expected to determine whether Maharashtra can recover the deficit or whether the imbalance persists.
