Nitish Kumar
Exit polls released Tuesday were unanimous that NDA will win Bihar and do so with a much more comfortable majority than five years ago. Some even projected that it could get close to a two-thirds majority in the 243-member assembly. The polls also concurred that Prashant Kishor’s fledgling outfit, Jan Suraaj, will have at best a limited impact, at least in terms of winning assembly seats. If the exit polls prove correct, chief minister Nitish Kumar would have shown that a near 20-year run in the job with a brief 9-month gap has not rubbed the sheen off his popularity, a remarkable feat by any standards. It would also mean a significant booster for NDA, heading into crucial assembly polls next year. Dainik Bhaskar projected that NDA would win between 145 and 160 seats with the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan trailing way behind at 73-102 and “others” winning between five and 10 seats.
Exit polls have had a patchy record in India
The Matrize-IANS poll had very similar numbers with the NDA projected to win 147-167, the MGB 70-90 and others two to six seats. People’s Pulse had only slightly different projections with the NDA slated to win 135-159, the MGB 75-101 and others two to eight seats. The majority mark in the Bihar assembly is 122 while 162 represents the two-third mark. That mark has been achieved by the winning coalition twice in the last two decades. The NDA in 2010 won 206 seats while the Mahagathbandhan in 2015 – which included RJD, JD(U) and Congress – won 178 seats. In 2020, the NDA won 125 seats while the MGB won 110. Exit polls have had a patchy record in India with some spectacular successes interspersed with projections that have been way off the mark. Two major pollsters – Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya – are to reveal their projections on Wednesday. The results will be known Friday.
