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Bangladesh on boil again: Why it matters for India – explained

Bangladesh on boil again: Why it matters for India - explained

Bangladesh was pushed back into turmoil this week after the killing of Sharif Osman Hadi, a prominent youth leader of last year’s July Uprising, triggered violent protests, arson and a fresh diplomatic standoff with India.Hadi, 32, was shot in the head by masked gunmen in central Dhaka while launching his election campaign and died six days later in a Singapore hospital. His death has reignited political instability at a moment when Bangladesh is preparing for a crucial national election and recalibrating its relationship with New Delhi.

Hadi Death Triggers Overnight Riots In Bangladesh With Arson And Anti-India Fury, Media Targeted

Also read: Journalists trapped inside as protesters storm and torch B’desh media housesAuthorities said Hadi was attacked while riding in a rickshaw near Box Culvert Road in the Motijheel area. He was shot near his left ear, lost significant blood and remained in critical condition before being airlifted abroad. Police initially said it was unclear who carried out the attack or why. His death, confirmed by interim chief adviser Muhammad Yunus, immediately sparked protests across Dhaka and other cities, with demonstrators vandalising buildings, torching newspaper offices and targeting symbols linked to the political establishment.

Who was Hadi – and how his death comes at a critical juncture

The unrest comes ahead at a critical juncture for Dhaka. Elections in Bangladesh are scheduled in February next year, which come more than a year and a half after the ouster of Sheikh Hasina (currently in exile in India). Hadi himself was a complex figure. Emerging from the July Uprising, he had become the convenor and spokesperson of Inquilab Mancha, a platform opposed to all forms of political domination. Educated at the University of Dhaka, he was a fierce critic not only of the Awami League but of mainstream politics as a whole. He rejected established Bangladeshi political elites and positioned himself as a voice of generational rupture.Also read: Who was Sharif Osman Hadi?By announcing his independent candidacy for the Dhaka-8 seat, Hadi aimed to challenge the threat posed by new political forces ahead of the election. Reacting to his death, Inqilab Moncho, the party Hadi belonged to, claimed that he had been ‘martyred’ in the so-called “struggle against Indian hegemony,” the statement said, as per BD News.The country has since been run by an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, which has faced fresh protests over delayed reforms and warnings of unrest from Hasina’s party, now barred from contesting the poll.Also read: How Sheikh Hasina’s fortunes changed in a yearNearly 128 million voters are eligible to cast ballots at more than 42,000 polling stations across 300 seats. The election will be held alongside a referendum on the ‘July Charter’, a reform blueprint drawn up after the unrest. The charter proposes curbs on executive power, stronger judicial and electoral independence, and safeguards against misuse of law enforcement.

Who killed Hadi — and why the narrative matters

Local reports claimed, without evidence, that the men behind the shooting were Indians or had escaped with Indian help, narratives widely seen as attempts to inflame public anger against New Delhi ahead of elections.As per a report by Prothom Alo, police have identified three suspects, all allegedly linked to Awami League–associated organisations. The shooter has been named as Faisal Karim Masud, also known as Rahul, a former leader of the now-banned Chhatra League, who allegedly fired from the back of a motorcycle driven by Alamgir Sheikh. Another individual, Rubel, linked to the Swechchhasebak League, is said to have carried out surveillance before the attack.Investigators say the murder was planned over months with the intention of creating large-scale instability. Photographs of the three suspects together at political events attended by Hadi have circulated widely on social media.Also read: How 2026 Bangladesh elections could redraw India’s security map – explainedEarlier on December 14, the ministry of external affairs rejected Dhaka’s assertion that India’s territory “was being used for activities inimical to the interests of the friendly people of Bangladesh.”The MEA reiterated India’s call for free and fair elections in Bangladesh.“We have consistently reiterated our position in favour of free, fair, inclusive and credible elections being held in Bangladesh in a peaceful atmosphere,” the statement read.

Diplomatic fallout and why Delhi is watching closely

On Wednesday, India had summoned Bangladesh’s high commissioner in New Delhi to convey serious concerns over the deteriorating security situation, particularly threats directed at Indian diplomatic missions. Indian authorities suspended visa services in Dhaka amid fears for staff safety and urged the interim government to meet its diplomatic obligations.

Why Bangladesh matters to India

For India, the stakes go beyond immediate security. A parliamentary committee in New Delhi has described the current phase as India’s greatest strategic challenge in Bangladesh since 1971, citing rising extremism, attacks on minorities, and the risk of Dhaka drifting away from its traditional alignment. The collapse of Awami League dominance, the surge of youth-led nationalism and the re-entry of Islamist forces have added to Delhi’s unease.“India faces its greatest strategic challenge in Bangladesh since the Liberation war of 1971. While the challenge in 1971 was existential, a humanitarian and a birth of a new nation, the latter was of a graver, a generational discontinuity, a shift of political order, and a potential strategic realignment away from India,” the report said quoting an expert.The panel recommended that the government should “continue to uphold its principled and humanitarian approach”, consistent with India’s values and international responsibilities, while ensuring that such situations are “managed with due sensitivity”.The committee flagged declining political dominance of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League, pointing to low voter turnout in the January 2024 elections as a sign of eroding legitimacy and public confidence. On Hasina’s stay in India, it stated, “The Committee note that the stay of former Prime Minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, in the country and India’s approach in this regard is guided by its civilisational ethos and humanitarian tradition of offering refuge to individuals facing circumstances of grave distress or existential threat,” while urging sensitivity in managing the issue.

The Hasina question

The fate of former Bangladeshi prime minister Sheikh Hasina has also emerged as a sensitive test of India–Bangladesh relations. In November, Dhaka formally sought the extradition of the 78-year-old Awami League leader, sentenced to death in absentia by a special tribunal over her government’s crackdown on the 2024 student-led uprising. Hasina has been in India since August 5, 2024, when mass protests forced her resignation and ended her party’s long rule. The unrest began as opposition to a job quota system favouring families of 1971 war veterans, but rapidly escalated into Bangladesh’s bloodiest political violence in decades. A UN inquiry later estimated that up to 1,400 people were killed as security forces responded with lethal force. An interim administration under Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus subsequently took charge.India has acknowledged the tribunal’s verdict but stressed it will continue to “engage constructively” with all stakeholders to support peace, democracy and stability. Dhaka, however, has insisted that extradition is a legal obligation under bilateral treaties, warning that sheltering convicted individuals would be “unfriendly”.Hasina for her part has dismissed the proceedings as “rigged”, arguing they are designed to erase the Awami League from politics. Go to Source

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