Breakthrough: Spacecraft gave warning for solar storm 15 hours before it struck Earth

We may soon be able to forecast destructive solar storms more than half a day in advance, thanks to a successful test using the Solar Orbiter spacecraft and a new AI model called Surya.

The sun periodically unleashes colossal blasts of plasma known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs). These eruptions can carry intense magnetic fields capable of crippling satellites, power grids, and communication systems on Earth. While telescopes and satellites can detect signs of CMEs, predicting which ones pose real danger has remained difficult because the risk depends on the orientation of the magnetic fields inside the ejections themselves.

In a recent breakthrough, scientists tested Surya on historical solar flare data and achieved striking results. The model could predict the occurrence of a solar flare within the following day with 16% greater accuracy than conventional machine learning systems. It also generated visual images of flares as they would appear to an observatory up to two hours into the future, offering a potential early-warning window.

“By developing a foundation model trained on NASA’s heliophysics data, we’re making it easier to analyse the complexities of the sun’s behavior with unprecedented speed and precision,” said Kevin Murphy, chief science data officer at NASA Headquarters in Washington.

“This model empowers broader understanding of how solar activity impacts critical systems and technologies that we all rely on here on Earth,” he added.

Early trials further showed that Surya could not only improve flare strength forecasts but also predict where a flare would erupt, another first in space weather science. Such lead time could prove crucial for protecting vulnerable infrastructure.

Solar storms and their risks

Solar flares are intense bursts of radiation from the sun’s surface that can cause widespread radio blackouts, disrupting aviation and marine navigation. They are often accompanied by CMEs, which hurl massive clouds of plasma into space. When these reach Earth, they can rattle the planet’s magnetic field and trigger powerful geomagnetic storms, with the potential to disrupt satellites, knock out power supplies, and interfere with global communications.