Oil prices remained stable in early Tuesday trading, with markets carefully weighing a complex mix of geopolitical risks and supply‑related uncertainties.
From Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure to renewed friction between the United States and Venezuela, traders continued to scan the horizon for any signals that could tilt global oil balances in the coming weeks.
Brent crude futures inched up by 7 cents, or 0.1 per cent, to trade at $63.24 a barrel by 9:30 AM. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude recorded a slightly stronger move, rising 10 cents, or 0.2 per cent, to $59.42 a barrel, reported Reuters.
Both benchmarks climbed more than 1 per cent on Monday, with WTI closing near a two‑week high as traders took stock of escalating geopolitical tensions.
Analysts at Saxo Bank noted that “oil held gains as traders awaited President Trump’s moves on Venezuela and assessed Black Sea terminal damage,” underlining how geopolitical flashpoints have increasingly shaped short‑term sentiment.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict Dims Supply Outlook
A significant driver of market attention remains the Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s Black Sea export infrastructure on November 29. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium confirmed on Monday that it resumed shipments from one mooring point at the terminal, following a temporary disruption.
Reports in Russia’s *Kommersant* newspaper suggested that loading operations had restarted through Single Point Mooring 1 (SPM 1), while the second mooring point (SPM 2) had sustained notable damage.
Analysts at Ritterbusch and Associates said the attack reinforced their view that prospects for a negotiated truce remain remote. “The military action further supports our opinion that a peace deal is highly unlikely anytime soon and that the diesel/gasoil markets are on the cusp of pulling the complex back up,” they noted.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy reiterated on Monday that Kyiv’s negotiating stance prioritises sovereignty and strong security guarantees, while acknowledging that territorial issues remain the most difficult barrier to agreement. A briefing between US envoy Steve Witkoff and Kremlin officials is expected on Tuesday, though analysts say meaningful progress appears unlikely.
US-Venezuela Tensions Add Another Layer of Risk
Beyond the conflict in Eastern Europe, tensions between Washington and Caracas have resurfaced as another potential risk factor. Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS, said that “the only other emerging factor” influencing market sentiment was the growing “noise around Venezuela.” Although he emphasised that a full‑scale conflict appears unlikely, he warned that political instability could disrupt both production and exports from the OPEC producer.
US President Donald Trump held discussions with senior advisers on Washington’s pressure strategy, after stating over the weekend that airspace over and around Venezuela should be regarded as “closed in its entirety,” though he offered no specifics. Markets remain alert to possible sanctions or transport restrictions that could curb crude flows.
OPEC+ Output Stance Supports Prices
On the production side, OPEC+ on Sunday reaffirmed a modest output increase for December but signalled a pause in any further boosts during the first quarter of next year. The cautious approach reflects the group’s concerns about a potential oversupply. DBS Bank’s Sarkar said that “the OPEC+ language on supply management and discipline in the near term remains supportive for oil prices,” noting that the alliance appears focused on preventing unwanted price softness as global demand enters seasonal fluctuation.
As December begins, oil markets remain delicately poised, supported by OPEC+ discipline yet exposed to geopolitical disruptions that could shift supply expectations overnight.
