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Erin, the first potential hurricane of the Atlantic season, may strengthen into a Category 4 by Sunday, bringing gusty winds, rain, and rough surf to the northeastern Caribbean.
Representative Image of Hurricane. (AI generated image)
After a quiet start to summer, the Atlantic may soon see its first hurricane of the year: Erin. Erin is tracking west-northwest on Friday morning, still hundreds of miles away from any land. The storm is expected to strengthen over the next few days as it cruises across the Atlantic and is expected to become a Category 4 hurricane by Sunday.
According to the National Hurricane Centre, Erin, on Thursday evening, strengthened into a strong tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph while over the open tropical Atlantic.
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The storm could bring some gusty winds, rain, rough surf and rip currents to parts of the far northeastern Caribbean as it slides just north of the islands this weekend.
Before Erin, four systems — Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dexter — formed in the Atlantic basin, but none intensified beyond tropical storm strength, CNN reported.
This year’s first hurricane is arriving a bit later than usual. Historically, the first hurricane of the season forms around August 11, though recent years have seen earlier starts. By this time last year, three hurricanes — Beryl, Debby, and Ernesto — had already formed.
Erin is forecast to pass just north of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend, while making a gradual turn toward the north. Tropical storm watches were issued for several of the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday evening.
A direct landfall on any Caribbean island is unlikely, though still possible if Erin’s track shifts in the coming days.
Erin is more likely to stir up rough seas and trigger rip currents in the Caribbean through the weekend into early next week. Depending on its exact path, the storm could also bring gusty winds and periods of heavy rain, with the potential for flash flooding or mudslides, CNN reported.
It’s too soon to know what kind of threat Erin could pose to Bermuda. By next week, the potential impacts on the island will become clearer. The hurricane is currently forecast to stay away from the United States, but that’s not an absolute certainty. Even if Erin stays offshore, it could still create rough surf and hazardous rip currents along the US East Coast next week.
Factors On Which Erin’s Track Could Depend
How quickly Erin strengthens in the coming days could be the key factor in its eventual path. Erin will have ample fuel in the western Atlantic, where sea surface temperatures are well above average. While not as hot as the record-breaking levels of 2023 and 2024, they remain significantly warmer than they would be without the warming effects of fossil fuel pollution.
According to the National Hurricane Centre, Erin could explode in strength once it reaches this very warm water and become the season’s first major hurricane — Category 3 or higher — by Sunday.
When hurricanes grow stronger, their storm clouds also grow taller and reach higher into the atmosphere. That extra height allows them to tap into the faster winds present higher in the atmosphere that can pull the storm more to the north.
The Bermuda High — a large, semi-permanent area of clockwise circulating high pressure that meanders over the Atlantic Ocean — is often in the driver’s seat in this case: When the high turns the steering wheel, the hurricane generally follows.
If Erin develops more slowly, it may remain lower in the atmosphere, where the trade winds — which flow clockwise around the equator — could steer it westward and keep it from turning.
Which scenario wins out will become clear by the weekend, but any islands in the potential path of Erin should prepare ahead of time.
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