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While the monsoon withdrawal began normally this year from Northwest India, its complete retreat from central India and the rest of the country is likely to be delayed further
Vehicles ply on a waterlogged road amid rainfall, in New Delhi on September 30. (Image: PTI)
India’s four-month southwest monsoon has concluded with nearly 8 percent excess rainfall. The northwest region, battered by floods, experienced its wettest season since 2001, the India Meteorological Department said on Tuesday.
“All four months saw surplus rainfall, with floods and landslides recorded across multiple states. Although not record-breaking, September saw over 15% above-normal rains, continuing a recent trend of excess rains during the last month. Based on real-time media reports and other state government agency inputs, as many as 1,528 lives were lost mainly due to flood-related disasters, though the actual toll could be significantly higher,” said IMD chief Dr Mrityunjay Mohapatra.
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The IMD had predicted above-normal rains this season – over 106 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of +/-4 percent, and the actual rainfall reached 108 percent of LPA. Out of the total 36 meteorological sub-divisions in India, 14 saw excess rains while it was normal in 19 and deficient in just three: Bihar, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.
In fact, the rainfall over east and northeast India was the second lowest since 1901. “The meteorological conditions favoured a good monsoon this year, hence we predicted above-normal rains. The ocean conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean – ENSO were also neutral. Moreover, there were over 18 low-pressure systems which bring rain, compared to just 13 that we normally witness spread over 69 days in the 122-day season,” Mohapatra said.
The season was marred by record-breaking rainfall, which caused massive deluge in several states. September also witnessed multiple extreme weather events, including a cloudburst in Chennai on August 30 and a cloudburst-like rain in Kolkata on September 23 causing 13 deaths. There was extremely heavy rainfall over Telangana, Uttarakhand (Dehradun), and Himachal Pradesh.
According to Mohapatra, neutral ENSO conditions continued through the season, and there is now a 71 percent chance that it may transition to La Nina during October to December.
MONSOON WITHDRAWAL DELAYED OVER CENTRAL INDIA
While the monsoon withdrawal began normally this year from Northwest India, its complete retreat from central India and the rest of the country is likely to be delayed further.
Forecasters are expecting more low-pressure systems in the next two weeks, which may cause the delay. As a result, October may also witness above-normal rains. As of Tuesday, the monsoon is yet to withdraw completely from Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat.
Another western disturbance is approaching Northwest India around October 4 and is likely to bring a slight drop in temperatures. Until then, day and night temperatures are likely to be above-normal.
MORE RAIN ON THE WAY
The weather department has predicted excess rains in October as well – more than 115 percent of the LPA – owing to the delayed withdrawal of the monsoon from central India.
It may, however, be normal over Northwest India, where the harvesting season has begun in several agricultural states. Moreover, the northeast monsoon is set to begin soon.
This seasonal system brings rains over five sub-divisions in southern states – Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, South Interior Karnataka, and Rayalaseema, which is likely to be more than 112 percent of the LPA.
About the Author
Srishti Choudhary, Senior Assistant Editor at CNN-News18 specializes in science, environment, and climate change reporting. With over a decade of extensive field experience, she has brought incisive ground repo…Read More
Srishti Choudhary, Senior Assistant Editor at CNN-News18 specializes in science, environment, and climate change reporting. With over a decade of extensive field experience, she has brought incisive ground repo… Read More
September 30, 2025, 22:15 IST
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