Dalal Street geared up for a cautious start to the trading week on Monday. The BSE Sensex opened the session below 82,200, crashing 450 points, while the NSE Nifty50 began the day just above 25,250, tanking nearly 70 points.
The GIFT Nifty also indicated a weak session ahead as it slipped 80 points to touch 25,334, around 7:45 AM. In the pre-open session, the Sensex took a hit of more than 400 points to touch 82,221, around 9:02 AM. Meanwhile, the Nifty slumped almost 100 points to reach 25,229.45, around the same time.
Domestic and global triggers, include the sharp hike in US H-1B visa fees, the upcoming trade talks between India and the US, and the rollout of reduced GST rates on a wide range of items. Analysts said global equity trends and macroeconomic data from the US will also remain key for market direction.
Trump Hikes H1-B Visa Fees
Notably, late on Friday, the US announced a steep annual application fee of $100,000 on H-1B visas. The move is expected to impact the $285-billion Indian IT sector, where companies already face pressure from tariffs and slowing demand. “While export-driven sectors are already grappling with tariff-related pressures, this move could further weigh on IT services exporters at a sensitive time when trade negotiations remain underway,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.
The latest measure is seen as a setback for Indian tech professionals, who account for more than 70 per cent of H-1B visa holders. Apex industry body Nasscom has warned that business continuity for onshore projects could be disrupted. “This move… could sharply increase costs for US clients and reduce demand for Indian tech talent, directly impacting the revenue visibility of large IT exporters such as TCS, Infosys, and Wipro,” said Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst, Swastika Investmart.
However, the US administration issued a clarification on Sunday stating that the new fees remains applicable only to new applicants, leaving existing visa holders and renewals unaffected.
Industry experts said the clarification removes immediate concerns, with no direct impact expected in the short term. Since the higher fee will apply only in the next application cycle, the effect is unlikely to be felt for at least six to twelve months. However, several analysts cautioned that while the impact may be delayed, IT companies will eventually need to reassess business strategies if the measure remains in place.
“For the next six months to one year, there’ll be no impact because for last year, they (companies) already filed H-1B petitions and the lottery system will operate. It’s only for a petition filed for now… If you file a new petition, it takes six months to one year for it to come up,” said Mohandas Pai, former Infosys CFO and industry veteran.
India-US Trade Talks
Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal will lead an official delegation to the US on September 22 for fresh trade negotiations. According to the Commerce Ministry, both sides have agreed to intensify efforts towards concluding a “mutually beneficial” agreement after constructive discussions last week in New Delhi.
On the domestic front, consumers will begin to see the benefit of reduced GST rates from today. Prices of around 375 items, spanning essentials such as medicines and kitchen staples to automobiles and electronics, are set to fall as the revised rates take effect from September 22, coinciding with the start of the Navaratri festival season. Analysts expect the tax cuts to boost demand momentum as the festive quarter begins.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net buyers on Friday, purchasing equities worth Rs 390.74 crore, according to exchange data. Last week, the Sensex advanced 721.53 points or 0.88 per cent, while the Nifty gained 213.05 points or 0.84 per cent, extending the market’s upward momentum.
