Russian fuel shortages bite – but will Putin change tack in Ukraine war?

If you want to get a sense of the fuel crisis gripping Russia, all you need to do is spend a day driving around Moscow. At almost every petrol station we passed there was a queue of cars and lorries. Some lines were long, some short; some static, others moving steadily.

If there was no queue, that meant the garage had run out of fuel entirely and was closed.

Remember: this is Moscow, the wealthy, populated capital that draws in so much of Russia’s vast resources. Even here the authorities cannot ensure there is enough petrol and diesel to keep Muscovites on the road.

Yet, in the queues, the mood was more frustrated than angry. Yekaterina told us she was “not happy” and there was “panic because everybody thinks there will be no oil”. But it would OK, she said, “we just need to reorganise the oil distribution”.

The situation according to Elmar was “very bad” and he complained prices were going up as fuel stocks ran low. “You are wasting hours to fill up,” he said. “At the moment I am planning a trip to Dagestan but I don’t know if I should drive there or not because there are so many problems with petrol.”

I asked him who was to blame. “In our country, you can’t say what is to blame and who is to blame,” he said, with a knowing smile.

In Russia, criticism of the president, or even the Kremlin, is not something most feel they can do in public.

Valery said it was strange having to queue in a country that extracts so much oil. He blamed the lack of Russian preparedness as much as Ukrainian missiles. “I have no desire to get used to queues,” he said. “I hope the situation will change soon and won’t be continued.”

So the war is coming closer to home for many across Russia.

President Vladimir Putin has worked hard to insulate most people from the consequences of what he calls his special military operation, now well into its fifth year. On the streets of Moscow, one can see little sign of the war, just a few posters about heroic soldiers.

Yet what is harder for the authorities to ignore are the increasing number of Ukrainian drone and missile strikes deep into Russian territory, targeting oil refineries, darkening the skies over Moscow and St Petersburg.

Add to that internet shutdowns restricting the spread of information, and now the fuel shortages.

Russia, one of the world’s biggest oil producers, is struggling to refine enough fuel to meet domestic demand.

Andrei was queuing for the first time, with his wife Yekaterina. He blamed what he called “geopolitics” and accepted the situation could get worse.

“We hope that all sides will start moving towards each other and discuss conditions for a peace deal,” he said. “But now unfortunately we don’t see it from our European partners. So perhaps the situation will only get worse.”

He remained phlegmatic: “We survived the 90s. We remember times that were much more difficult. It doesn’t scare us.”

Social media is awash with images of drivers queuing for petrol. Some tailbacks go on for miles. Posts show fights breaking out.

In the Black Sea resort of Anapa, Cossacks have been deployed to keep order in queues.

Rationing is widespread and many areas have banned the use of jerry cans. One mayor in Siberia is laying on portable toilets for drivers. In some areas bus services and rubbish collections have been reduced. Farmers fear for this summer’s harvest.

The anxiety is real and widespread.

But can Nato leaders meeting in Ankara assume this economic turmoil will translate into political pressure on the Kremlin?

That is certainly the hope in Kyiv where strategists are banking on ordinary Russians becoming so exasperated they will urge their leader to bring the war to an end.

The Kremlin is certainly paying attention. Putin is concerned enough to address the fuel shortage publicly on state TV, insisting the Ukrainian attacks are “obviously creating problems” but insisting “it’s not critical”.

That said, authorities are taking no chances and have already begun increasing fuel imports, subsidising fuel prices and allowing the sale of lower-grade fuel that some fear could damage engines.

Putin and his advisers also know the shortages are shaping public opinion.

The latest poll by independent organisation Levada Center suggests Putin’s approval rates are dipping to around 74%. It also suggests the number of Russians who believe the country is heading in the right direction has fallen to just 52%, down from 61% in May.

Polling organisation Gallup suggested last week Russians were more pessimistic about the state of their economy than at any time in the past 20 years, with 60% of respondents saying economic conditions where they lived were getting worse.

Even state-run Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VCIOM) suggests public trust in Putin fell by 3.4 percentage points to 73% in the space of a week.

Christopher Weafer, head of regional consultancy Macro Advisory, says the fuel crisis may be a “game-changer” for economic growth in Russia. “The costs of the conflict are rising,” he says. “While the full impact from the fuel crisis will not be seen in the statistics until July, the likelihood of lasting crisis has significantly dimmed the growth prospects for the remaining part of the year.”

But will all this translate into political pressure on the Kremlin to change tack?

Nina Khrushcheva, professor of international affairs at The New School in New York, told the BBC that Putin was unlikely to bend. “The more pressure he feels, the more likely he would act aggressively and repressively,” she said. “I think it is serious, but the Western expectation that Russians are going to just take down the regime is very far-fetched.”

Russians had been feeling a lot of anger and desperation, but also “a lot of resignation about what’s going on”, she added. European hopes that they could force Putin to the negotiating table were, she said, a fantasy: “I mean, that doesn’t happen.”

Instead, all the signs are that Putin is doubling down. Last Friday he was filmed in military fatigues, meeting commanders where he claimed victories on the front line and promised to take yet more territory. “The Russian Armed Forces continue to confidently hold the strategic initiative in the special military operation zone,” he declared.

But then Putin told his generals to analyse the involvement of Ukraine’s European allies in “real combat actions” that he claims are extending the war. “We need this analysis for taking responsible decisions in the future,” he said without expanding.

It is a phrase that has raised eyebrows in diplomatic and military circles.

The question being asked in Western capitals is what Putin might do next. Will he escalate? And if so, how?