The unprovoked and unilateral war imposed on Iran is likely to yield significant strategic advantages for the heavily sanctioned Shia nation, which is determined in its resolve to rise from its ashes following the military actions undertaken by the United States and Israel. The ramifications of this war not only bolster Iran’s strategic importance and aspirations regarding nuclear capabilities within the region but also effectively position it to exert influence over the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial international waterway governed under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. As a result, neighbouring countries of Iran, along with India, will be compelled to navigate and adjust to this evolving geopolitical landscape, which may reshape alliances and power dynamics in the area.
The United States may find its strategic influence over Iran diminishing, particularly if Iran emerges as a nuclear power, which could significantly alter the balance of power with its neighbours and potentially ignite a nuclear arms race in the region. With Pakistan, already facing economic challenges, closely allied with Saudi Arabia through a defence pact, there is a strong likelihood that it will seek to support the Saudi regime in developing nuclear capabilities.
India Watches Closely as Iran’s Post-War Role Expands
The Indian strategic community is closely monitoring these evolving geopolitical dynamics with concern. A resurgent Iran, bolstered by support from China and Russia, is expected to adopt a more assertive stance. India, which previously adhered to US-imposed sanctions and curtailed its oil imports from Iran, cannot afford to overlook the implications of a post-war Iran, especially given its long-standing historical ties and the bipartisan commitment to strengthening relations with Iran from the era of Nehru to Modi.
In the aftermath of the war, India must reevaluate its relationship with Iran, a nation that has demonstrated remarkable resilience and pride in its heritage. Despite facing significant military pressure from the United States, Iran has remained steadfast, refusing to capitulate or incite dissent against its current regime. As a new member of the BRICS coalition, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, Iran is poised to assert its role in global politics, presenting India with an opportunity to strengthen bilateral ties and use it for advancing its interests in Central Asia.
Sanctions, Chabahar and the Strategic Tightrope
India faces a critical decision regarding its adherence to US sanctions, which could jeopardise its relationships with Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Russia. Abandoning the Chabahar port project under the US influence would mean sacrificing vital trade and strategic connections not only with Afghanistan but also with the broader Central Asian region. Iran has consistently supported India in this initiative, and a robust partnership with Iran is essential for advancing India’s national interests in these areas. In this backdrop, India will have to recalibrate and recast its ties with Iran.
The Chabahar port project, initiated through a tripartite agreement involving India, Iran, and Afghanistan during Prime Minister Modi’s 2016 visit to Tehran, has been pivotal in enhancing trade with Afghanistan, especially as the Taliban has shown a willingness to engage positively with India, raising concerns for Pakistan. However, the project has encountered obstacles, particularly due to sanctions from the Trump administration. India is currently in discussions with U.S. officials to underscore the strategic significance of the port within its Central Asia policy, as strengthening ties with Iran not only bolsters India’s regional influence but also aligns with its broader geopolitical ambitions in a rapidly changing landscape.
Deep Historical Ties Amid Modern-Day Challenges
The historical relationship between India and Iran, as noted by the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, spans thousands of years. A pivotal moment in this diplomatic journey occurred in March 1950 when independent India signed a Friendship Treaty with Iran, a bond that was further solidified through high-level exchanges between the two nations. Initially, the partnership focused on energy cooperation, particularly concerning India’s oil imports from Iran. The visit of Iranian President Muhammad Khatami as the Chief Guest at India’s Republic Day celebrations in January 2003 marked a significant turning point, during which both leaders agreed on India’s development of the Chabahar port. This project aimed to enhance access to Central Asian countries and establish a direct route to Afghanistan, circumventing previous limitations imposed by Pakistan.
In recent years, however, the relationship with Iran has encountered substantial hurdles due to unilateral sanctions from the United States. Despite India’s attempts to withstand American pressure, it was compelled to cease oil imports from Iran in 2019. Following the US military actions against Iran, the Trump administration temporarily lifted sanctions on the Indian-developed Chabahar port, allowing for extensions beyond April 26. India remains optimistic about revitalising this port, which is vital for boosting bilateral trade and improving access to Central Asian markets.
Trade Routes, Energy Security and Strategic Stakes
Iran’s collaboration is also crucial for India in achieving the ambitious International North-South Transport Corridor, designed to link India to Russia through Iran. This corridor, which spans approximately 7,200 kms, has the potential to revolutionise regional trade by significantly lowering trading costs between India and Russia by as much as 55 per cent. While Russia actively supports this initiative, US sanctions pose a considerable challenge that India must navigate to ensure the successful realisation of the corridor.
A recent study by Money Control reveals that approximately 16 per cent of India’s total trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, with energy imports being particularly vital, accounting for more than half. This heavy dependence on the strait for energy supplies limits India’s options, making the security of this route crucial for its economic stability. The ongoing U.S.-led tensions in Iran and the potential for the Strait’s closure have starkly highlighted the economic risks India faces, underscoring the necessity of fostering a cooperative relationship with Iran for the benefit of both nations.
A Strategic Reset India Can’t Afford to Delay
India has prioritised strengthening its ties with Iran, acknowledging the historical and civilizational connections that have existed for centuries. The trade and cultural exchanges between the two countries have evolved significantly over time, reflecting the shifting global landscape. This historical backdrop emphasises the importance of their partnership in the context of contemporary geopolitics. This longstanding connection has facilitated knowledge sharing and enhanced people-to-people exchanges, benefiting both societies. However, in the face of current geopolitical and geo-economic challenges, both nations are at a pivotal moment, requiring a reassessment of their strategies and alliances to maintain their historical ties while adapting to the evolving demands of the fast-changing politico-economic architecture of West Asia.
India should not permit its relationship with Iran to be compromised by the sanctions imposed by the United States. In light of the shifting dynamics following recent conflicts, it is imperative for India to leverage its strategic influence to navigate the complexities of the U.S. sanction regime while simultaneously revitalising its longstanding historical ties with Iran. This approach is essential for fostering robust energy, trade, economic, and strategic partnerships. The strategic decision-makers in Raisina Hills must engage in careful negotiations with both the United States and the West Asian region to redefine and strengthen bilateral relations with Iran, ensuring that India’s national interests are effectively safeguarded in this intricate geopolitical landscape.
The writer is a senior journalist and strategic affairs analyst.
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