The ongoing conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States is now having a major impact on global oil markets. In just six days, oil prices have surged by 12%, rising from 6500 per barrel on February 26 to 7115 on March 2, and further to 7278 per barrel on March 3. Analysts warn that prices could climb even higher if the war continues. The primary reason behind the spike is the disruption around the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime route through which a large share of the world’s oil supply passes. With tensions rising in the region, oil tankers and shipping routes are facing serious disruptions. Meanwhile, China is reportedly trying to engage with Iran to ensure that oil shipments can continue moving through the region without further escalation. Amid the crisis, a major statement has come from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding Iran’s leadership. Trump said he does not support Mojtaba Khamenei as the next Supreme Leader and claimed that his role should be considered in the selection of Iran’s new leader. Trump also said Iran needs leadership that can bring peace and improve relations with the United States. Reports suggest that Iran’s powerful military force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, was pushing for Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, to take over the position. However, Trump’s comments have reportedly increased pressure on the decision. Experts say a full regime change in Iran would be extremely difficult without deploying ground troops, something the United States is unlikely to attempt again after its experiences in the Iraq War and the War in Afghanistan.
