US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has issued a bold warning to New Delhi, predicting that India will eventually yield to American pressure over its ongoing oil trade with Russia and alignment with the BRICS alliance. Speaking on the strained economic ties between the two nations, Lutnick suggested that India’s tough posture won’t last long in the face of the United States’ market dominance.
Support the US or Pay 50% Tariffs
Lutnick did not mince words when outlining the stakes. “If you want to be the bridge between Russia and China, go be it! But either support the dollar, support the United States of America, support your biggest client or pay 50 per cent tariffs. And let’s see how long this lasts,” he warned.
He further added, “India doesn’t want to open their market. Stop buying Russian oil. And stop being a part of Brics.”
Lutnick stated that unless India alters its course, it risks a crippling 50% tariff on its exports to the US. Drawing comparisons with past trade disputes, he said, “It’s all bravado because it feels good to fight with the biggest client. But eventually, businesses will demand a deal with America.”
India’s Russian Oil Imports in the Spotlight
Lutnick specifically criticized India’s surge in Russian oil purchases, highlighting how imports grew from less than 2% before the Ukraine war to more than 40% now.
“What they’re doing is, because the oil is sanctioned, it’s really, really cheap… And so the Indians have just decided, ‘Ah, the heck with it. Let’s buy it cheap and make a ton of money’,” he said, calling the move “just plain wrong” and “ridiculous.”
He also referenced former President Trump’s recent Truth Social post: “Looks like we’ve lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest, China. May they have a long and prosperous future together!”
Eventually, the Customer Is Always Right
Lutnick emphasized the US’s unmatched consumer power, stating, “We are the consumer of the world. People have to remember, it’s our USD 30 trillion economy that is the consumer of the world. So, eventually they all have to come back to the customer.”
When asked whether talks were still on the table, he said, “We’re always willing to talk.” Yet, he firmly maintained that the choice is India’s to make — either align with the US or continue siding with Russia and China at a significant cost.
Diplomatic Fallout and India’s Response
Tensions between New Delhi and Washington have escalated sharply in recent months, particularly after Trump’s administration imposed the threatened 50% tariff. Indian officials have condemned the move as “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable”, pointing out that China — the largest buyer of Russian crude — has not faced similar penalties.
India has defended its energy purchases as decisions driven by national interest and market necessity rather than politics. But with the US drawing red lines, a major diplomatic showdown could be imminent.
