According to the latest forecast by market research firm IDC, the global smartphone market will see a slight rebound in 2025, and it is expected that shipments will increase 1% compared to 2024. The analyst group credits much of this growth to the iPhone shipments by Apple, which will see an expected growth of 3.9% year-on-year (YoY). IDC estimates the overall shipment of smartphones will reach 1.24 billion units this year, which is marginally higher than its previous forecast of 0.6% growth.
The optimistic outlook is that the demand for iPhones remains strong even as the general market experiences difficulties in China and other areas.
Regional growth and premiumisation trends
The growth will not be the same across the globe. The American smartphone market will grow by 3.6%, and the Middle East and Africa might increase by 6.5%.
Asia-Pacific markets (excluding China) could increase by 0.8, which will offset an estimated 1% fall in China.
IDC had previously predicted growth in China by 3%, but the estimates have been reduced due to the roll-off of government subsidies.
Meanwhile, phone makers are pushing up into high-end products, and the average selling price (ASP) has risen by 5% in 2025.
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The industry’s overall revenue will increase by 6% per year, and the interest of consumers in the high-end handsets is expected to remain stable.
The role of GenAI and foldables
A major highlight in the report is the rise of “GenAI smartphones”, handsets that come with pre-installed generative AI features.
IDC forecasts more than 370 million units shipped by 2025, which will have a market share of 30%.
In the meantime, foldable smartphones will grow by 6% this year, and hopefully more in 2026 and 2027 when Apple joins the foldable market.
Nonetheless, IDC warns that foldables will still stay as a niche product as they will make less than 3% of shipments by 2029.
