11.1% Drop In Smartphone Shipments, Record Prices: Why Waiting For Diwali To Buy New Phone Could Backfire

Sma tpho e
ma ket
is
e te i g
the
2026
festive
seaso
with
a
u usual
p oblem:
co sume s
may
get
discou ts
du i g
the
biggest
sales
of
the
yea ,
but
the
pho es
themselves
a e
becomi g
mo e
expe sive.
Risi g
memo y
costs,
a
weake
upee
a d
co ti ued
supply-chai
p essu e
a e
pushi g
up
ha dset
p ices,
pote tially
cha gi g
the
calculatio
fo
buye s
pla i g
a
p emium
upg ade.

Fo
yea s,
waiti g
fo
Diwali
a d
othe
festive
sales
has
bee
a
st aightfo wa d
st ategy
fo
sma tpho e
shoppe s.
This
yea ,
howeve ,
buye s
co side i g
expe sive
devices
such
as
foldables
may
have
a othe
facto
to
co side :
the
possibility
that
highe
compo e t
costs
will
limit
how
ge e ous
futu e
discou ts
ca
be.

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‘Ult a’
I
Eve y
Se se

Sma tpho e
P ices
A e
Al eady
Movi g
Highe

The
p essu e
is
ot
me ely
theo etical.
I dia’s
sma tpho e
i dust y
eco ded
a
7.9
pe
ce t
i c ease
i
p ices
i
the
fi st
five
mo ths
of
2026,
acco di g
to
TechA c
data
epo ted
by
Busi ess
Sta da d.
The
t acke
showed
p ices
i c easi g
by
oughly
2.16
pe
ce t
eve y
mo th
th ough
May,
with
e t y-level
a d
base
models
bea i g
some
of
the
sha pest
impact.

Othe
esea ch
poi ts
to
a
eve
wide
gap
betwee
segme ts.
A
Fi a cial
Exp ess
epo t
citi g
Techa c
fou d
that
e t y-level
sma tpho e
p ices
had
i c eased
by
as
much
as
40
pe
ce t
ove
the
p evious
yea ,
while
some
p emium
flagship
models
had
actually
become
cheape
by
up
to
20
pe
ce t.

The
b oade
ma ket
is
also
showi g
sig s
of
p emiumisatio .
CMR’s
latest
Q2
2026
data
i dicates
that
I dia’s
ove all
sma tpho e
ma ket
decli ed
10
pe
ce t
yea -o -yea ,
eve
as
the
supe -p emium
segme t
p iced
above
Rs
50,000
g ew
72
pe
ce t.

IDC
data
cited
i
the
o igi al
ma ket
assessme t
simila ly
poi ts
to
fewe
devices
bei g
sold
while
ave age
selli g
p ices
co ti ue
to
climb,
suggesti g
that
co sume s
a e
i c easi gly
spe di g
mo e
o
the
pho es
they
do
buy.

AI
Is
Maki g
Sma tpho e
Memo y
Mo e
Expe sive

O e
of
the
biggest
easo s
behi d
the
p ici g
p essu e
is
memo y.

The
explosive
expa sio
of
AI
data
ce t es
has
i c eased
dema d
fo
high-ba dwidth
memo y,
e cou agi g
chipmake s
to
p io itise
mo e
p ofitable
compo e ts
used
i
AI
i f ast uctu e.
That
has
squeezed
supplies
of
co ve tio al
DRAM
a d
NAND
memo y
used
i
sma tpho es,
laptops
a d
othe
co sume
elect o ics.

The
impact
is
pa ticula ly
seve e
fo
cheape
pho es.
The
I dia
Exp ess
epo ted
that
memo y’s
sha e
of
the
total
cost
of
a
low-e d
sma tpho e
has
climbed
f om
less
tha
10
pe
ce t
to
mo e
tha
40
pe
ce t,
while
memo y
p ices
have
mo e
tha
t ipled
si ce
Octobe
2025.

The
esult
is
a
difficult
equatio
fo
ma ufactu e s.
Cutti g
memo y
specificatio s
ca
make
a
pho e
less
competitive,
while
abso bi g
highe
compo e t
costs
puts
p essu e
o
al eady-thi
ma gi s.
Raisi g
p ices,
mea while,
isks
weake i g
dema d.

The e
is
also
the
cu e cy
facto .
A
dep eciati g
upee
makes
impo ted
compo e ts
mo e
expe sive
fo
I dia
ma ufactu e s
a d
b a ds,
addi g
a othe
laye
of
p essu e
to
al eady
elevated
compo e t
costs.

The
iPho e
Could
Also
Become
Mo e
Expe sive

The
p ici g
p essu e
is
ot
est icted
to
A d oid
sma tpho es.

Apple
has
al eady
i c eased
p ices
fo
seve al
p oducts
i
I dia,
i cludi g
Macs,
iPads
a d
HomePod
devices,
amid
the
global
memo y-cost
su ge.
The
iPho e
was
ot
i cluded
i
those
evisio s
at
the
time,
but
epo ts
i dicate
that
the
situatio
could
cha ge
with
the
ext
ge e atio .

Rece t
epo ts
have
poi ted
to
pote tially
highe
p ices
fo
the
upcomi g
iPho e
18
P o
models,
with
estimates
suggesti g
that
Apple’s
bill
of
mate ials
could
ise
substa tially
because
of
memo y
a d
othe
compo e t
costs.
O e
epo t
citi g
Cou te poi t
Resea ch
estimates
a
possible
$250-$350
i c ease
fo
the
iPho e
18
P o
Max,
although
Apple’s
fi al
etail
p ici g
decisio
emai s
u k ow .

That
makes
the
iPho e
a othe
impo ta t
i dicato
of
whe e
the
p emium
sma tpho e
ma ket
could
be
headi g.
If
Apple
passes
a
mea i gful
po tio
of
highe
compo e t
costs
to
custome s,
it
would
ei fo ce
the
b oade
t e d
al eady
visible
ac oss
I dia’s
sma tpho e
i dust y.

Why
Foldable
Buye s
Have
Mo e
to
Co side

Foldables
occupy
a
u usual
positio
i
this
e vi o me t.
They
a e
al eady
amo g
the
most
expe sive
sma tpho es
available,
while
equi i g
some
of
the
i dust y’s
costliest
tech ologies,
i cludi g
flexible
OLED
displays,
specialised
hi ges
a d
high-e d
p ocesso s.
Ma y
also
come
with
la ge
memo y
a d
sto age
co figu atio s.

Samsu g’s
latest
Galaxy
Z
Fold8
illust ates
the
p ice
poi t
clea ly.
The
pho e
sta ts
at
Rs
1,79,999
i
I dia
fo
the
12GB
RAM
a d
256GB
sto age
co figu atio ,
while
highe -sto age
ve sio s
go
up
to
Rs
2,39,999.
Samsu g
also
offe s
the
Galaxy
Z
Fold8
Ult a,
which
sta ts
at
Rs
1,99,999
a d
ises
to
Rs
2,59,999
fo
the
16GB/1TB
va ia t.

Yet
dema d
fo
the
catego y
emai s
st o g.
Samsu g
said
its
latest
Z-se ies
foldables
ge e ated
mo e
tha
271,000
p e-o de s
i
I dia
withi
72
hou s
of
thei
July
22
lau ch,
compa ed
with
15
days
equi ed
by
the
p evious
ge e atio
to
each
a
simila
umbe .

Globally,
Cou te poi t
Resea ch
expects
foldable
sma tpho e
shipme ts
to
g ow
21
pe
ce t
i
2026.
Apple
is
also
expected
to
e te
the
foldable
ma ket
this
yea ,
pote tially
givi g
the
catego y
a othe
majo
boost.

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K ew
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Resea ch,
US
States
Allege
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La dma k
T ial

Should
You
Wait
Fo
The
Festive
Sale?

That
does
ot
mea
festive
sales
will
disappea
o
that
eve y
sma tpho e
will
become
mo e
expe sive
ove ight.
Discou ts,
excha ge
bo uses,
ba k
offe s
a d
o-cost
EMI
deals
ca
still
make
majo
pu chases
cheape
du i g
the
seaso .

But
the
old
assumptio
that
waiti g
automatically
gua a tees
the
lowest
effective
p ice
is
becomi g
less
eliable.

A
Rs
1.8
lakh
foldable
discou ted
du i g
a
festive
sale
could
still
ep ese t
good
value.
Howeve ,
if
ma ufactu e s
aise
p ices
befo e
o
afte
the
sale
because
of
memo y,
cu e cy
a d
compo e t
p essu es,
the
headli e
discou t
may
simply
offset
pa t
of
a
u de lyi g
p ice
i c ease.

Fo
co sume s
who
have
al eady
decided
that
they
wa t
a
foldable,
the
mo e
se sible
app oach
may
the efo e
be
to
compa e
the
cu e t
effective
p ice,
excha ge
be efits
a d
fi a ci g
optio s
agai st
the
likely
festive
offe s
athe
tha
waiti g
bli dly
fo
a
sale
date.

The
sma tpho e
ma ket
is
cha gi g
f om
a
volume
game
to
a
value-d ive
o e.
Buye s
a e
pu chasi g
fewe
devices,
but
p emium
sma tpho es
a e
comma di g
g eate
atte tio .
At
the
same
time,
the
AI
i dust y’s
appetite
fo
memo y
is
c eati g
costs
that
a e
begi i g
to
each
co sume s.

Festive
sales
will
still
b i g
deals.
The
bigge
questio
i
2026
is
whethe
those
deals
will
be
e ough
to
ove come
a
sma tpho e
ma ket
whe e
the
sta ti g
p ice
itself
is
steadily
movi g
upwa d.

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