As Tamil Nadu gears up for the 2026 Assembly election, the battle lines are not just between the ruling bloc and the opposition but also within the alliance itself. Seat-sharing negotiations between the DMK-led front and Congress have intensified, with growing speculation that a miscalculation could fragment votes and increase the possibility of a fractured mandate.
Adding to the intrigue is the shadow of actor Vijay’s political outfit waiting to capitalise on any cracks.
Congress Ups The Ante, DMK Stands Firm
According to multiple reports, Congress has demanded 35 seats in the upcoming election. However, the DMK leadership is only willing to offer “two or three seats” more than the 25 seats allotted to Congress in 2021.
A day after AICC general secretary K C Venugopal met chief minister M K Stalin, AICC in-charge for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry Girish Chodankar, and TNCC chief K Selvaperunthagai met DMK MP Kanimozhi Karunanidhi in Chennai to press for a larger share.
“Congress asked for 35 seats,” a DMK source was cited in a report. “Kanimozhi told the delegation that she would consult with the chief minister.”
Reports indicate that Congress initially pitched for as many as 41 seats before scaling down its demand. The DMK, meanwhile, opened negotiations by arguing that with nearly ten new allies joining the front, all parties would have to accept a reduced share. The ruling party has signalled it may stretch to 27 or 28 seats for Congress but not beyond.
The Vijay Factor And The Hung Assembly Scenario
The friction is not merely about numbers. Congress leaders have reportedly hinted, both directly and indirectly, that if their demand is ignored, they could explore other options. That includes potential engagement with Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam.
At one point, Congress functionaries even met Vijay to discuss alliance possibilities. Reports suggest that attractive offers, including a larger seat share and participation in governance, were floated.
If Congress walks out, it could split the anti-AIADMK vote in several constituencies. In a state where margins are often thin, such a move could reduce the DMK’s seat tally and open the door to a hung assembly. Smaller parties could then become kingmakers, and Vijay’s outfit may emerge as a crucial swing factor.
New Allies Complicate Arithmetic
The recent induction of DMDK into the DMK-led alliance has further complicated the equation. A senior leader said, “We need to allocate at least seven seats to DMDK.” Other new entrants, including MNM, MJK, SDPI, Mukkulathor Pulipadai, and Kongu Ilaignar Peravai, are also seeking space.
The DMK has reportedly conveyed that Congress will not necessarily retain the same constituencies it contested last time. “We (DMK) told them we would take some of the tough constituencies and give them easier ones,” a source said.
Congress, on its part, has decided not to press for formal power sharing during seat talks. Instead, it is pushing for greater representation in local bodies and has sought 25 per cent of seats in the upcoming local body election,s along with a written assurance of a Rajya Sabha seat.
After a two-hour meeting, Girish Chodankar told reporters, “The discussions were positive.”
For now, both sides are projecting calm. But as negotiations move to the next round, Tamil Nadu’s political chessboard looks anything but settled. If accommodation fails, the 2026 election may not produce a clear winner, and that uncertainty could prove to be the biggest opportunity for Vijay.
