Iran may be on the verge of regime collapse, according to a new report by the UK-based Henry Jackson Society, which warns that such a fall could trigger civil war and a dangerous power vacuum.“There is a danger that regime collapse could lead to a vacuum of governance that is accompanied by civil war,” the report said.“This is an outcome that must be avoided at all costs for the Iranian people, and every step must therefore be made to ensure that any transition is quick and painless,” it added.The report said that the “winds of change” are gathering around the Islamic Republic, even as the United Nations accuses Tehran of executing nearly 900 people this year as a “tool of intimidation.”The report said that the Ayatollah Khamenei’s regime is deeply tied to the legacy of the Islamic Revolution and accused it of committing to “reconstituting its nuclear program and exporting terrorism both regionally and internationally,” making it an ongoing danger to the West.The report further said that the targeted attacks by Israel and the US in June on Iranian nuclear sites “set back the regime, but it has not eliminated the strategic and security threats posed by the regime.” If Iran rebuilds its air defences, long-range missiles, missile launchers, or progresses in developing further enriched uranium for its nuclear program, both Israel and the US should contemplate conducting military strikes on a wide array of Iranian regime assets, the report said.The report advised Israel to uphold its air supremacy, which provides it operational freedom over Iran. It advised that Israel must move beyond simply targeting nuclear facilities and instead recognise that the regime itself is the core driver of Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
