Amid
epeated
attacks
o
shippi g
a d
g owi g
isks
to
alte ative
e e gy
outes,
Gulf
states
may
be
fo ced
to
accept
a
deal
they
do
ot
fully
suppo t
Pe sia
Gulf
e e gy
p oduce s
a e
epo tedly
becomi g
i c easi gly
esig ed
to
I a
etai i g
sig ifica t
co t ol
ove
the
St ait
of
Ho muz,
as
effo ts
to
eope
the
vital
wate way
face
a
sta doff
a d
egio al
gove me ts
weigh
the
isks
of
e ewed
wa
agai st
dis uptio
to
oil
a d
gas
expo ts.A
p oposed
a a geme t
to
eope
the
st ategic
wate way
has
become
the
p efe ed
optio
fo
seve al
Gulf
states
despite
thei
co ce s
ove
I a ia
ove sight,
as
pe
a
epo t
by
Wall
St eet
Jou al.
The
alte ative,
they
fea ,
is
a
wide
US-I a
co f o tatio
that
could
put
oil,
gas,
powe
a d
wate
facilities
ac oss
the
egio
at
g eate
isk.Although,
egotiatio s
have
stalled
i
ece t
days.
I a
is
seeki g
fi a cial
elief
a d
a
p ohibitio
o
US
a d
Is aeli
wa ships
i
the
st ait,
while
Washi gto
has
ejected
a y
a a geme t
that
would
allow
Teh a
to
impose
est ictio s
o
shippi g.The
impasse
has
p olo ged
the
dis uptio
to
o e
of
the
wo ld’s
most
impo ta t
e e gy
outes.
Oil
shipme ts
th ough
Ho muz
have
falle
sha ply
si ce
the
co flict
bega ,
with
Kple
estimati g
c ude
expo ts
at
a ou d
2.2
millio
ba els
pe
day
last
week,
compa ed
with
about
8.5
millio
ba els
a
mo th
ea lie .
Befo e
the
wa ,
the
wate way
ca ied
oughly
20
millio
ba els
of
oil
a d
pet oleum
p oducts
a
day.
St uggle
to
fi d
alte atives
Regio al
p oduce s
have
t ied
to
keep
expo ts
movi g
without
elyi g
e ti ely
o
the
st ait,
but
those
effo ts
have
offe ed
o ly
limited
p otectio .
The
UAE
ma aged
to
b i g
its
oil
expo ts
back
to
p ewa
levels
by
mid-yea
by
outi g
oil
ac oss
the
dese t
a ou d
the
Ho muz
blockade
a d
movi g
some
ships
th ough
the
st ait,
acco di g
to
ship
t acke
Vo texa.
Those
gai s
have
si ce
bee
e oded
by
I a ia
attacks.Saudi
A abia
has
also
used
a
alte ative
expo t
oute,
pumpi g
oil
ac oss
the
dese t
to
a
po t
o
the
Red
Sea.
But
that
oute
has
come
u de
attack
f om
the
I a -backed
Houthi
militia
i
Yeme .The
th eat
has
exte ded
beyo d
the
Gulf.
A
d o e
attack
o
a
gas
ta ke
at
Egypt’s
po t
of
Damietta,
which
set
two
ships
o
fi e,
mea i g
that
e e gy
shipme ts
emai
vul e able
eve
outside
Ho muz.“I
this
backg ou d
the
A ab
Gulf
states
ca ot
eally
e su e
complete
safety
a d
ope ess
of
the
St ait
of
Ho muz
a d
ca
o
lo ge
ely
upo
it
fo
t a spo t
o
t ade,”
said
Ume
Ka im,
a
esea che
i
Gulf
secu ity
matte s
at
the
U ive sity
of
Bi mi gham.
“Thus
the e
is
o
othe
optio
fo
ow
but
to
co cede
to
a
deg ee
to
I a ia
dema ds.”The
wide
secu ity
th eat
is
also
maki g
alte ative
outes
ha de
to
ely
o .
Betwee
Feb ua y
28
a d
July
30,
I a
a d
allied
militias
i
I aq
ca ied
out
at
least
172
attacks
o
o -milita y
i f ast uctu e
ac oss
the
six
A ab
Gulf
states,
acco di g
to
the
A med
Co flict
Locatio
a d
Eve t
Data
p oject.
E e gy
facilities,
i cludi g
oil
i f ast uctu e,
gas
pla ts,
powe
statio s
a d
desali atio
facilities,
accou ted
fo
about
half
of
those.Gulf
states
a e
co seque tly
looki g
at
lo ge -te m
ways
to
educe
thei
depe de ce
o
Ho muz,
i cludi g
expa di g
pipeli es
to
the
Red
Sea
a d
Gulf
of
Oma
a d
i c easi g
sto age
capacity.
P oduce s
have
also
t ied
movi g
ca goes
th ough
the
st ait
with
thei
locatio
beaco s
switched
off.
Why
Gulf
states
may
accept
‘bad
deal’
The
immediate
co ce
fo
Gulf
gove me ts
is
that
e ewed
fighti g
could
cause
eve
g eate
damage
to
e e gy
i f ast uctu e
a d
fu the
dete
fo eig
i vestme t
a d
tou ism.Oil
p ices
have
eased
f om
thei
wa time
highs
amid
subdued
dema d
i
majo
eco omies,
but
global
i ve to ies
have
falle
by
mo e
tha
400
millio
ba els
ove
the
past
six
mo ths.
That
leaves
the
ma ket
with
less
of
a
cushio
agai st
a othe
supply
shock.I a ia
officials
have
also
sig alled
that
eope i g
Ho muz
will
come
with
co ditio s.
Fo eig
Mi ist y
spokesma
Esmail
Baghaei
said
Mo day
that
the
wate way
would
ot
be
ope ed
u til
the
US
stops
what
Teh a
desc ibes
as
agg essive
actio s
a d
makes
ame ds,
i cludi g
ove
the
blockade
of
I a ia
po ts.Fo
Gulf
states,
a
tempo a y
a a geme t
could
the efo e
esto e
some
e e gy
flows
without
esolvi g
the
b oade
secu ity
th eat.“A
ea -te m
deal
to
eope
the
st ait
could
ease
Gulf
e e gy
shipme ts
but
would ’t
emove
the
th eat,”
said
Elle
Wald,
se io
fellow
at
the
Atla tic
Cou cil’s
Global
E e gy
Ce te .
“But
cedi g
co t ol
ove
i bou d
a d
outbou d
t affic
to
I a ,
eve
o
a
‘tempo a y’
basis,
will
ot
esolve
the
la ge
issues
a d
leaves
thei
expo ts
subject
to
Teh a ’s
whims
fo
the
fo eseeable
futu e.”Thus,
the
esult
boils
dow
to
a
tough
choice
fo
egio ‘s
e e gy
expo te s:
accept
a
deg ee
of
I a ia
co t ol
ove
the
wo ld’s
most
impo ta t
oil
chokepoi t,
o
isk
a
wide
co flict
that
could
th eate
both
thei
e e gy
i f ast uctu e
a d
global
supplies.
