Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Ministers Jitan Ram Manjhi (2nd from right) and Chirag Paswan (2nd from left). (PTI Photo)
NEW DELHI: Dalits make up around 20% of Bihar’s 13-crore population, and their votes are set to play a decisive role in determining whether the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) or the opposition Mahagathbandhan emerges victorious in the upcoming assembly elections.With polling scheduled for November 6 and 11, and results to be declared on November 14, all political parties are working overtime to woo this crucial voter bloc. But which way is Bihar’s Dalit vote likely to swing?How Dalits vote in Bihar: What the numbers say Of Bihar’s 243 assembly seats, 38 are reserved for Scheduled Castes (Dalits). In the last three elections, the BJP won 18 of these seats in 2010— 5 in 2015 and 9 in 2020, according to Election Commission data.The JD(U) secured 19, 11, and 8 seats, respectively; the RJD won 1, 13, and 9, while Congress managed 0, 5, and 4 over the same period.At the alliance level, the NDA won 37 reserved seats in 2010, 8 in 2015, and 21 in 2020. The RJD and its allies won just 1 in 2010, while the Mahagathbandhan secured 29 in 2015 and 17 in 2020.In 2010 and 2020, the BJP and JD(U) fought together, as they are doing this time. But in 2015, the two regional heavyweights -Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) – had joined hands to counter the BJP-led NDA. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 12 of the 17 seats it contested, and the NDA bagged 30 of 40 seats overall. Five years earlier, in 2019, the alliance had swept 39 of 40 seats, with the BJP winning all 17 it contested.Mahagathbandhan’s push to brand BJP as ‘anti-Dalit’ After the “Abki baar 400 paar” setback in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the opposition has seized on a series of incidents to accuse the BJP of being “anti-Dalit.”Recent flashpoints include the shoe attack on Chief Justice of India BR Gavai, a Dalit; the suicide of a Dalit IPS officer in BJP-ruled Haryana after alleged casteist abuse; and the lynching of a Dalit youth in BJP-run Uttar Pradesh’s Raebareli, represented by Congress MP Rahul Gandhi.Mahagathbandhan’s outreach: Beyond MY politics With its core Muslim-Yadav (MY) base intact, the RJD, backed by the Congress, is now eyeing the Dalit and backward-class vote to bridge the narrow gap with the NDA that proved decisive in 2020. The opposition alliance — still struggling to finalise a seat-sharing formula even as nominations closed for the first phase — unveiled a 10-point manifesto for Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) last month. Lok Sabha leader of opposition Rahul Gandhi’s “Voter Adhikar Yatra” (August 17–September 1), launched amid the controversy over the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision in Bihar, was also designed to reach out to backward and Dalit communities. Gandhi has since met the families of the deceased Haryana IPS officer and the Raebareli lynching victim, reinforcing his outreach. Meanwhile, the NDA has run a women-focused campaign, while also hoping to gain from the AIMIM’s decision to contest 100 seats. The Owaisi-led party, which had won five seats in 2020, was denied entry into the Mahagathbandhan this time.NDA’s strategy: Manjhi and Paswan take center stage To consolidate Dalit support, the BJP is banking on its two key allies — Jitan Ram Manjhi and Chirag Paswan — both heavyweight leaders from the community. Manjhi, a former chief minister and head of the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), commands around 2–3% of Bihar’s votes, primarily in the Magadh region, where he represents the Gaya Lok Sabha seat. Paswan, a Union minister and chief of the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), remains one of Bihar’s most influential young Dalit leaders. The BJP has allotted him 29 assembly seats under the NDA arrangement — a reflection of his 100% success rate in 2024, when his party won all five seats it contested. Go to Source