Ukraine’s defeat would embolden China to invade Taiwan, says senior intelligence officer

If Russia defeats Ukraine it will embolden China’s moves towards Taiwan and Taipei hopes that Kyiv emerges victorious, a senior uniformed Taiwanese military officer said this week in a rare visit to Europe to attend a security forum.

Taiwan, which China views as its own territory, has found an increasingly sympathetic ear in parts of central and eastern Europe since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, even though almost all European countries only maintain formal diplomatic ties with Beijing and not Taipei.

Unlike the United States, Europe no longer sells big-ticket defence items to Taiwan, fearful of incurring Beijing’s wrath, and open visits to Europe by any Taiwanese military officers are highly unusual.

Addressing the Warsaw Security Forum on Tuesday, Hsieh Jih-Sheng, deputy chief of the general staff for intelligence at Taiwan’s defence ministry, said the war in Ukraine was being closely watched in Taipei.

“We wish for their victory,” he said, in footage streamed online from the event, where he attended in person wearing full military uniform and speaking in English.

“There are many things that we can learn from the Ukrainian theatre that we can elevate for our overall readiness,” Hsieh added. “The defeat of Ukraine will signal that China can take more aggression towards Taiwan.”

China’s foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. On Monday, it condemned Taiwan Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung’s attendance at the same forum saying Taiwan was seeking to exaggerate the China threat.

Hsieh raised the alarm about China and Russia’s joint military drills.

“If China moves on Taiwan while Russia increases its offensive in Ukraine, the world could face a two-front geopolitical crisis,” he added.

“Europe today, you are fighting for your own security. If you help us, we can prevent the possibility of war in the Indo-Pacific.” Taiwan has joined in Western sanctions against Russia and has also been studying how the much smaller Ukrainian military has been able to fight its huge neighbour, drawing lessons for how it could deal with any Chinese attack.

Taiwan has complained for the past five years of increased Chinese military pressure, both war games and also “grey zone” activities that stop short of open combat but are designed to exert pressure, including cyber attacks and undersea cable sabotage.

Hsieh said Taiwan and Europe could learn from each other.

“We have been dealing with China’s grey zone operations for years. There is a tremendous (amount of experience about) how we counter disinformation that we can share with Europe, and also how we can benefit us, but also benefit European nations,” he said.

(This is an agency story. Except for the headline, the story has not been edited by Firstpost staff.)