France: PM Bayrou’s fate hanging in balance, far-Right National Rally already in election mode

France’s far-right National Rally said on Monday it was preparing for the possibility of snap elections, adding that Prime Minister Francois Bayrou’s efforts this week to try to stave off the collapse of his government would fail.

Opposition parties have said they will bring down the minority government in a September 8 confidence vote, which Bayrou unexpectedly announced last week as he seeks to push through unpopular plans for a budget squeeze in 2026.

Bayrou began a series of talks on Monday with opposition parties to try to prevent this.

If Bayrou does lose next week’s vote, President Emmanuel Macron can appoint a new prime minister immediately, ask Bayrou to stay on in a caretaker capacity for some time, or decide to call snap parliamentary elections. Last month, before Bayrou announced his confidence vote, Macron ruled out early elections.

However, National Rally (RN)’s president, Jordan Bardella, said on Monday: “We can and must be ready for anything, including a return to the ballot box with a dissolution of the National Assembly.”

Bardella spoke ahead of a meeting aimed at preparing the RN for parliamentary elections, and said the party had already chosen 85% of its candidates.

Marine Le Pen, the dominant force in the party even though she is no longer its president, told the same meeting that she and Bardella would meet Bayrou on Tuesday out of courtesy, but expected nothing from the meeting.

Macron called a snap parliamentary election in June last year that was widely seen as a failed gamble, further weakening him and delivering an even more fragmented parliament. Opinion polls show new elections would deliver another hung parliament, but with the RN likely stronger than it is now.

Le Pen was convicted in March of embezzling EU funds and banned from running in elections, meaning she would not be able to run for re-election to parliament if polls were held soon. She has appealed her conviction, but that appeal will likely not be ruled on before the summer next year.

Parties ranged against government

Bayrou was set to start his talks with the Communist Party on Monday afternoon, before meeting other parties later in the week.

The head of the Socialist Party, Olivier Faure, said on Sunday that his party’s decision to vote against Bayrou was “definitive”.

The parties that have said they will vote against Bayrou together have enough votes to trigger the fall of the government.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Monday that France was solid but that any risk of a government falling in the euro zone was a concern. France has the euro zone’s second largest economy.

French stock and bond markets fell sharply last week after Bayrou’s announcement but recovered some ground by Monday.