For TikTok gift, Xi seeks Trump’s help in occupying Taiwan

In the low-cost, high-benefit game that Xi Jinping is playing with Donald Trump, the Chinese leader appears to be seeking the most prized concession from the American president in exchange for one that barely means anything.

In return for clearing the sale of TikTok’s US operations, Xi appears to be pushing Trump to announce outright opposition to the independence of Taiwan, according to The Wall Street Journal.

There are signs that Trump may just buckle under pressure and hand Xi a victory on a platter: he has cancelled military aid worth $400 million to Taiwan, weakened US-led security partnerships in the region that deter Chinese aggression against Taiwan, and withdrawn from the Indo-Pacific, leaving partners like Taiwan vulnerable to Chinese aggression.

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China considers the self-ruling island of Taiwan a breakaway province and is committed to its reunification with the mainland — forcefully if required. The US intelligence community has assessed that Xi has ordered the military to prepare for an invasion of Taiwan by 2027. While he has not said it explicitly, he has implied that the deadline to occupy Taiwan is 2049 — the 100th anniversary of Communist China’s establishment.

As Firstpost’s Madhur Sharma previously noted, Trump has been making a spree of major concessions to Xi on trade, technology, and international relations, all to secure a symbolic victory on the relatively minor issue of TikTok — a move aimed at saving face domestically, where he is otherwise grappling with slowing job growth, declining manufacturing, rising inflation, and a looming recession.

What does Xi want from Trump?

Xi wants Trump to categorically declare that the United States opposes the independence of Taiwan, according to The Wall Street Journal.

For decades, the United States has pursued a policy of ‘strategic ambiguity’ regarding Taiwan, whereby it neither explicitly endorses Taiwan’s independence nor explicitly opposes it. Instead, it seeks the continuation of the status quo, where Taiwan maintains its self-rule free from Chinese occupation.

Such a policy rests on a nuanced reading of China’s red lines on Taiwan. The United States has acknowledged China’s ‘One China Policy’, which recognises that there is one China and that Taiwan is part of it. However, this acknowledgment is not the same as endorsing China’s ‘One China Principle’, which asserts China’s sovereignty over Taiwan and calls for the international community to explicitly rule out Taiwan’s independence.

For decades, China appeared to tolerate this ambiguity — but Xi no longer does.

The Journal has reported that Xi is no longer satisfied with the US position adopted by the previous Joe Biden administration, which stated that Washington “does not support” Taiwanese independence. Instead, he wants Trump to categorically declare that he “opposes” Taiwan’s independence.

For Xi, the difference between “does not support” and “oppose” is far more than mere wordplay, according to the newspaper.

The use of “oppose” by Trump would, for Xi, signal a shift in US policy from a neutral stance to one that actively aligns with Beijing against Taiwanese sovereignty — a change that could further cement Xi’s hold on power at home, the paper notes.

On the record, however, the Trump administration told the newspaper: “We have long stated that we oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side.” The statement added: “China presents the single greatest threat to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”

Xi’s low-cost, high-benefit game

Xi has always treated TikTok as a low-cost bargaining chip to extract major concessions from Trump.

He has used TikTok as “an expendable concession”, and the gains from any deal now far outweigh the costs, according to Dimitar Gueorguiev, Director of Chinese Studies at Syracuse University.

“Chinese officials have let the issue fester for years, holding it in reserve as a problem they could one day solve to defuse pressure from Washington. A deal now costs Beijing less than when negotiations started, while still yielding the maximum optics of compromise,” Gueorguiev told The New York Times.

Taiwan is not the only area where Xi has sought major gains. He has also secured favourable deals regarding tech export controls and tariffs. In return, China has got away with pledging next to nothing.