Bolsonaro under house arrest faces depression, infighting, and Trump-tied tariff fallout

As Brazil’s Supreme Court prepares to hear closing arguments in former President Jair Bolsonaro’s trial over an alleged coup plan, the former army captain and his political coalition appear to be unravelling.

Allies who have visited the far-right firebrand, who is now under house arrest in a gated Brasilia community, tell Reuters that they observed Bolsonaro struggling with depression, hiccup attacks, and a fixation on the judge he blames for his problems.

The steadfast ally of US President Donald Trump was rocked again this week when federal police disclosed a cache of private conversations depicting him as a leader who was hesitant, second-guessing himself and attempting to prevent infighting among his closest allies.

“Open your mouth!” evangelical preacher Silas Malafaia wrote to him, as he urged the former president to make political use of hefty tariffs Trump has imposed on Brazilian goods. “Leaders give direction to the people, people are led by others when leaders fall silent.”

The messages were released as part of an investigation into the former president and his son, lawmaker Eduardo Bolsonaro, who is leading a campaign in Washington urging the Trump administration to intervene on behalf of his father.

Last month, Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods in an attempt to stop what he called a “witch hunt” against the former president. Trump also imposed sanctions on Alexandre de Moraes, the judge overseeing the case in which Bolsonaro is accused of plotting to overturn his defeat in the 2022 elections.

The US pressure has done nothing to derail Bolsonaro’s trial and appears to have even given his rival, leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a lift in the polls and a common foreign foe for his fragile governing coalition.

As the Supreme Court trial of Bolsonaro wraps up, his conversations show a leader unsure of how to steer his own fate, let alone unite his fractured base ahead of next year’s presidential elections.

When Malafaia pushed Bolsonaro to record a video and translate it into English to catch Trump’s attention, the former president complained he was too sick to respond.

“I have a hiccup crisis,” he wrote. “If it calms down here, I’ll do it.”

He recorded the video days later.

In a statement, a lawyer for Malafaia said that his private messages were taken out of context and that they do not show any irregularity. Bolsonaro did not reply to a request for comment.

‘The president is anguished’

Bolsonaro has spent three weeks confined to his home in an upscale condominium in Brasilia, since Moraes ruled he had failed to comply with restraining orders meant to stop any interference with the trial.

Bolsonaro has called those orders, including the seizure of his cellphone and imposition of an ankle monitor, acts of “cowardice” from Moraes, whom he describes as a “dictator.”

“I feel supreme humiliation,” Bolsonaro told Reuters in an interview on the day the ankle monitor was attached. “I am 70 years old, I was president of the republic for four years.”

As his house arrest has dragged on, the former president’s mood has soured despite the steady stream of visits from allies.

“We notice the president is anguished. He is not that smiling Bolsonaro we know,” said lawmaker Domingos Savio, who was at the former president’s home last week. “The main aspect of this anguish is the feeling of injustice.”

Bolsonaro’s thoughts return regularly to Moraes, whose name he repeats “all the time,” lawmaker Luciano Zucco told Reuters as he stepped out of the former president’s home last week.

The evidence found by federal police on Bolsonaro’s cellphone suggests he may not have complied fully with restraining orders issued by Moraes blocking him from using social media.

He had shared messages in support of Trump’s policies on Brazil over 6,000 times, the police found. A draft letter on his phone suggested he had considered fleeing to Argentina.

“I find myself in a situation of political persecution in Brazil, fearing for my life,” said the document addressed to Argentine President Javier Milei. It was last edited in 2024, police said.

In a statement last week, Bolsonaro’s lawyers said the former president had “never failed to comply with any previously imposed restraining orders.”

Infighting

As Bolsonaro’s challenges have grown, so has infighting among his allies, who are still unsure of who will represent the former president on the ballot next year, when he is banned from running.

One camp, including Bolsonaro’s family, has refused to consider a 2026 race without his name on the ballot. But others are pushing him to endorse an alternative such as Sao Paulo governor Tarcisio de Freitas, a former member of his cabinet whom Eduardo Bolsonaro has repeatedly attacked.

The younger Bolsonaro warned his father in text messages that the governor’s potential candidacy could undermine Trump’s willingness to help the ex-president.

“Here in the US, we had to sidestep the idea planted by his allies that Tarcisio = Bolsonaro,” the lawmaker wrote to his father. That would be “a clear message that the US didn’t need to get involved in this fight.”

When the former president played down a spat between the governor and his son, whom he called “not so mature,” Eduardo Bolsonaro lashed out in vulgar chat messages, released this week by police, calling his father “ungrateful.”

Freitas and Eduardo Bolsonaro did not immediately reply to a request for comment.

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