Bolivia votes amid 40-year high inflation and divided opposition candidates

Voters in Bolivia are gearing up for a general election on Sunday that has been overshadowed by inflation at a four-decade high and the absence of former leftist President Evo Morales, who is barred from running.

Leading the race are opposition conservative contenders Samuel Doria Medina, a business magnate, and Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, a former president, but neither commands more than 30% support, opinion polls show, with around a quarter of Bolivians undecided.

The August race marks the first time in almost two decades that polling indicates Bolivia’s incumbent Movement for Socialism, or MAS, could face defeat. Support for MAS-affiliated and other left-leaning candidates trails the opposition, totaling around 10%, according to the latest August Ipsos CEISMORI survey.

If no presidential candidate wins more than 40% support with a 10 percentage point lead, the election will head to a runoff on October 19.

Morales, who co-founded MAS and governed the country from 2006 to 2019 under its banner, has been barred from running for another term as president.

Ballot stations open on Sunday at 8 a.m. local time (1200 GMT) and close at 4 p.m., with initial results expected after 9 p.m. Full official results are due within seven days. Voters will also elect all 26 senators and 130 deputies, and officials assume office on November 8.

With a crowded field and no dominant MAS party candidate, the election marks a “crossroads moment” for Bolivia, said Southern Andes analyst Glaeldys Gonzalez Calanche of the International Crisis Group.

Bolivia’s fragile economy is top-of-mind for voters. Price-rises have surged past other Latin American countries this year, and fuel and dollars have run scarce.

Annual inflation doubled to 23% in June, up from 12% in January, with some Bolivians turning to cryptocurrencies as a hedge.

Many Bolivians, especially those who work in the informal economy, were now struggling to make ends meet, said economist Roger Lopez.

“Prices of the basic food basket are going up fast,” said Lopez. “Suddenly the math doesn’t add up anymore.”

They may choose to punish MAS on Sunday, creating a window of opportunity for centrists, the right, or a leftist faction led by Senate President Andronico Rodriguez.

“Every year the situation has got worse under this government,” said Silvia Morales, 30, from La Paz, who works in retail. A former MAS voter, she said this time she would cast her vote for the center-right.

Carlos Blanco Casas, 60, a teacher in La Paz, said he intended to vote for change. “This election feels hopeful. We need a change of direction,” he said.

Quiroga has promised “radical change” to reverse what he calls “20 lost years” under MAS rule. He supports deep public spending cuts and a shift away from alliances with Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua. Quiroga was president for a year in 2001-2002 after the then-leader resigned.

Doria Medina, meanwhile, offers a more moderate approach, pledging to stabilize the economy within 100 days.

On the left, the vote is split between the official MAS party candidate Eduardo del Castillo, who is backed by outgoing President Luis Arce, and Rodriguez, who has distanced himself from the party and is running on his own ticket.

Morales, 69, has called for a boycott of the election, but analysts said his influence is waning.

“There is widespread support for these elections,” said Calanche. “Most Bolivians see them as key to leading the country towards economic recovery.”