Are the US and Venezuela heading towards an armed conflict?

Venezuela’s political standoff with the United States is reaching a boiling point.

On Monday, the South American country’s President Nicolás Maduro warned that he would proclaim a “republic in arms” if American forces launched an assault on his country.

His statement came as Washington expanded its naval footprint in the Caribbean, a move it insists is aimed at disrupting narcotics trafficking but which Caracas views as a prelude to military intervention.

Maduro described the deployment as “an extravagant, unjustifiable, immoral and absolutely criminal and bloody threat.”

He accused Washington of using anti-drug operations as a cover for efforts to remove him from office, a charge US officials deny.

What is the US doing near Venezuela?

The United States has sent one of its largest recent military deployments to the Caribbean and Latin American waters. At the forefront are two Aegis-class guided missile destroyers — the USS Gravely, the USS Jason Dunham — as well as the destroyer the USS Sampson and the cruiser USS Lake Erie.

A US defence official confirmed to AP that three amphibious assault ships, carrying over 4,000 sailors and Marines, are also moving into the region.

These amphibious forces alone represent a formidable capability, capable of conducting a wide range of operations from sea control to landing troops onshore.

The scale of the buildup is far beyond typical US naval patrols in the Caribbean, which often involve Coast Guard cutters or smaller deployments focused on interdiction of smuggling routes.

While Washington has made no formal announcement about plans for a land incursion, the force assembled has raised alarm in Caracas and among Venezuela’s allies.

In addition to the surface vessels, reports indicate that at least one submarine and additional support ships are positioned in the area. Maduro himself declared that “eight military ships with 1,200 missiles and a submarine” were now targeting Venezuela.

The US Navy has not provided exact details on its armament, but modern cruisers and destroyers carry significant firepower.

What is the US saying it’s doing in the region?

Officials in Washington say the deployment is part of US President Donald Trump’s campaign against international cartels.

The administration has consistently argued that narcotics organisations play a role not only in fuelling addiction in American communities but also in exacerbating violence across Latin America and contributing to migration pressures at the US southern border.

Trump has tied these operations directly to his domestic agenda, presenting them as an extension of policies meant to secure the border and reduce drug inflows.

His administration has pursued similar naval deployments before, including one in 2020, but the current scale is more extensive.

How is Maduro being targeted by the US?

At the same time, the US Justice Department has built a case against Maduro personally. He has been indicted in US courts for allegedly running the “Cártel de los Soles,” a network within Venezuela’s armed forces accused of drug smuggling.

The US government doubled its reward for information leading to his arrest to $50 million in August.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt put it bluntly, “Maduro is not a legitimate president. He is a fugitive head of this drug cartel.”

The administration has created a new sanctions framework specifically designed to target individuals linked to this network, stopping short of designating it a foreign terrorist organisation but still expanding the reach of US Treasury enforcement.

How has Maduro reacted to the US?

From Caracas, Maduro convened military leaders, officials, and journalists to denounce what he said was a campaign to oust him.

“They are seeking a regime change through military threat,” he declared. He added, “Venezuela is confronting the biggest threat that has been seen on our continent in the last 100 years. A situation like this has never been seen.”

The Venezuelan president insisted that his country remained peaceful but would not bow to pressure. “In the face of this maximum military pressure, we have declared maximum preparedness for the defence of Venezuela,” he said.

He further warned Trump, “President Donald Trump, the pursuit of regime change is exhausted; it has failed as a policy worldwide. You cannot pretend to impose a situation in Venezuela.”

According to Maduro, over eight million Venezuelans have joined as reservists in the Bolivarian Militia.

The government says these volunteers are prepared to defend the country if needed, although observers note that many are elderly or poor citizens who receive benefits for enrolling.

Maduro also announced the mobilisation of 15,000 troops along the Colombian border, expanded naval patrols to protect oil export routes, and imposed a nationwide ban on drone flights.

Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino confirmed that Venezuelan naval forces would be active in the country’s territorial waters.

Is Venezuela involved in trafficking drugs?

Caracas has repeatedly rejected the US characterisation of Venezuela as a hub of international narcotics trafficking.

Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yván Gil pointed to a United Nations report showing that 87 per cent of cocaine produced in Colombia leaves via the Pacific Ocean, with only around 5 per cent passing through Venezuela.

He argued that Washington’s claims are misleading and serve as a pretext for aggression.

“The narrative threatens the entire region,” Gil warned, telling a virtual meeting of Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) members that an attack on Venezuela “would really mean a complete destabilisation of the region.”

He urged Latin American leaders to demand an end to the US deployment, which he said “has no other reason than to threaten a sovereign people.”

Independent assessments, such as the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime’s Global Report on Cocaine, suggest that most maritime trafficking toward the United States occurs via the Pacific, while much of the Caribbean traffic involves clandestine flights rather than large naval shipments.

This raises questions about how effective the US buildup might be in disrupting supply chains, even if drug interdiction is the true objective.

Why is Maduro embroiled in controversy at home?

Maduro claimed victory in the 2024 presidential election, but opposition candidate Edmundo González is widely believed to have received more than twice as many votes, based on tallies obtained by the opposition.

International observers and several governments, including the United States, have rejected Maduro’s claim to legitimacy.

Despite these challenges, Maduro was sworn in for a third six-year term in January this year, maintaining his hold on power through control of state institutions and the security apparatus.

Nearly eight million Venezuelans have fled the country during his rule, driven by economic collapse, repression, and insecurity.

The opposition, led by María Corina Machado, has continued to call for international pressure.

Last month, Machado thanked Trump and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio for the US naval deployments, describing them as “the right approach” against what she called a “criminal enterprise.”

Maduro, in contrast, accused Rubio of acting as a “warlord” who was steering Trump “into a bloodbath… with a massacre against the people of Venezuela.”

He insisted his government was maintaining two channels of dialogue with Washington, one through the State Department and another via Trump’s envoy Richard Grenell, but stressed that Venezuela “will never give in to blackmail or threats of any kind.”

How have regional players in South America reacted?

Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali welcomed the US operation, framing it as a step toward security. Georgetown and Caracas remain locked in a dispute over the Essequibo region, a territory rich in oil that comprises two-thirds of Guyana’s land area but which Venezuela also claims.

The quarrel was thrust in the spotlight after ExxonMobil discovered vast reserves off Essequibo’s coast more than a decade ago.

Colombia, Venezuela’s western neighbour, has been a focal point of regional dynamics. Bogotá confirmed it had received assurances from Washington that the operation was not a prelude to intervention in Venezuela.

However, Caracas remains wary, deploying thousands of troops to the shared border and warning of provocations.

At the regional diplomatic level, Caracas has sought to mobilise opposition to Washington’s move. The Venezuelan government sent letters to UN member states requesting they denounce the operation as destabilising.

Yet the responses across Latin America remain divided, with some governments cautious about siding fully with Maduro while others view the US actions as unnecessarily provocative.

Will Maduro step down?

Maduro’s administration faces economic disaster, mass emigration, and international isolation. Yet, despite sanctions, embargoes, and years of pressure, he has managed to consolidate power and outlast successive US attempts at “maximum pressure.”

The Trump administration continues to brand him a major criminal actor, but at the same time, the US relies on cooperation with Caracas in limited areas such as deportation flights.

In July this year alone, there were nine chartered flights returning Venezuelan migrants from the United States to Caracas — a sign that even in the midst of confrontation, practical arrangements remain in place.

Maduro is using the current standoff to galvanise support at home and to project an image of resistance abroad.

By framing the US deployment as part of a long history of external aggression, he seeks to unify Venezuelans around the idea of national defence, even as the country struggles with shortages, inflation and institutional decay.

“Let us immediately demand an end to this deployment, which has no other reason than to threaten a sovereign people,” Gil has urged regional leaders.

For his part, Maduro has vowed to resist. “Venezuela is peaceful,” he said, “but will not bow to threats.”

With inputs from agencies

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