What’s wrong with Daniil Medvedev? The technical and mental breakdown behind Russian’s dramatic collapse

From being the player who emerged as a trusted individual to carry forward the throne held by the Big 3, Daniil Medvedev has suffered an unreal decline in the last twelve months.

It wasn’t long back when the player entered every tournament as a sure-shot contender and used to challenge behemoths like Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic – not Federer, because they only squared off three times, and it was the Swiss who secured the victory each time. Medvedev moved from strength to strength and even proved that he is different from the masses by winning a Grand Slam as well.

Defeating the great Djokovic in straight sets in a Grand Slam final is a daunting feat that he achieved before Carlos Alcaraz. Moreover, he attained the World No.1 ranking way before the current king at the top, Jannik Sinner.

However, something has gone horribly wrong in the last twelve months. The Russian has competed in 48 singles matches in 2025 and has won only 26 matches, boasting a win percentage of only 54.2 per cent. It is a massive fall, given he won 68.7 per cent of matches in 2024 and 84.6 per cent in 2023, which was his best year in professional tennis.  

Moreover, he had a terrible Grand Slam record in 2025. The 29-year-old suffered a loss in the second round of the Australian Open and could not go past the opening round in the subsequent Grand Slams in the year. The last opening round exit at Slam came on Monday, against Benjamin Bonzi at Louis Armstrong Stadium.

A US Open defeat which became so overwhelming that Medvedev was seen smashing his racquet sitting alone after the game was ended.

Daniil Medvedev looking totally distraught after his loss to Bonzi at the U.S. open.

He’s smashing his racquet and just sitting on the court.

Brutal loss to swallow.

pic.twitter.com/CYvceKNR2M

— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) August 25, 2025

A fall like this does not happen overnight; there ought to be reasons behind this.

Decline in service effectiveness

The serve, which used to be his strength, has lost effectiveness. In 2021-2023, he held 86-89 per cent of his service games, but the number has dropped to 82 per cent in 2025. This decrease has increased pressure on his baseline game, losing out on free points that a big serve guarantees.  

Technical vulnerabilities

Medvedev is not the same technically sound player that he once was. Young players like Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have figured out that overpowering him or forcing him forward with serve and volley tactics disrupts his rhythm. It is a competitive game after all, where once a weakness gets exposed, all the players will feed on it.

Loss of confidence and mental struggles

Confidence is a major factor that drives form, and lacking it might be one of the premier reasons behind Medvedev’s decline. The Russian recently admitted to lacking confidence.

“I lack confidence totally and my physical condition fails me,” Medvedev said after his loss in the Cincinnati Open final, as quoted by The Tennis Gazette.

Factors like coaching changes, things happening on the personal front, and an increase in competition may have also played a part in Medvedev’s fall.

The figures are worrisome and could leave any genuine tennis fan, who has seen Medvedev play on the court, concerned. This leaves questions like: can he make a comeback or will his statistics only go worse from here?

Being someone who once sacrificed sleep to watch Daniil Medvedev play the heavy-favourite Djokovic in the US Open final (2021) late at night, and got immensely impressed with his court coverage, forehand, backhand, and everything, I believe a comeback story is lined up.

Why Medvedev will come back to his best again

The 29-year-old is still at the physical peak of his career, and the current misery is just a phase in his career, a difficult one, though. It is not unprecedented. Name one player who has not experienced a dip in form. The best among the best have endured a loss in form. But what made them great champions is their ability to bounce back after hitting their lowest.

As they always say, form is temporary and class is permanent. Medvedev will likely follow the same path and come back stronger than ever. Moreover, he still has the zeal to win, which was evident during his US Open 2025 match against Benjamin Bonzi. His protesting for what he thought was an unfair decision by the umpire, taking energy from the crowd and riding the momentum, and then having an angry meltdown after losing the match, these are the signs one possesses when he hates losing and desperately wants to win every time.

With this desire, he will likely work on his game and make a massive comeback in 2026, or since the year has not ended, a different Daniil Medvedev could grace the court in the remaining months of 2025.