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NOAA forecasts La Niña will persist into winter, likely bringing harsher cold to India while impacting weather across regions from Indonesia to Latin America
Once La Niña sets in, it can remain active throughout most of the winter, potentially affecting the weather until early spring in 2026. (Representative/PTI)
India is witnessing a robust monsoon in 2025, thanks to the steady formation of new weather systems over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, bringing heavy rainfall across the country. Meteorologists say the active La Niña phenomenon in the Pacific, rather than El Niño, is driving this pattern. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts La Niña will persist into winter, potentially bringing harsher cold conditions to India while influencing weather across regions from Indonesia to Latin America.
NOAA predicts a 53% chance of La Niña developing between September and November, with this probability rising to 58% by the end of 2025. Once La Niña sets in, it can remain active throughout most of the winter, potentially affecting the weather until early spring in 2026.
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La Niña is a natural climate pattern where the waters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean become colder than usual, influencing upper atmospheric patterns and global weather. In contrast, during El Niño, the ocean waters are warmer than normal. Both conditions have the most significant impact on the Northern Hemisphere’s winter.
Although this upcoming La Niña is expected to be relatively weak, meaning its effects may not always be prominent, experts assert that it still provides a general weather blueprint.
La Niña And El Niño
La Niña typically brings strong monsoons and heavy rainfall to India while causing drought in parts of Africa and South America. It also has a slight cooling effect on global temperatures. Conversely, El Niño tends to increase temperatures. With La Niña active, severe cold is anticipated in many Asian countries, including India.
La Niña and El Niño cycles significantly influence global weather patterns. While La Niña cools the Pacific Ocean area from Indonesia to South America, El Niño warms it. As a result, La Niña brings normal or above-normal monsoon rains to India but drought to parts of Africa and increases storm intensity in the Atlantic. On the other hand, El Niño causes extreme heat and drought in India while bringing additional rainfall to South America.
La Niña was notably active for three consecutive years from 2020 to 2022, a phenomenon known as Triple Dip La Niña, followed by El Niño in 2023. Scientists believe that due to climate change, events like La Niña and El Niño may occur more frequently and with greater intensity.
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