Putin can no longer claim victory in Ukraine, Nobel Peace Prize winner tells BBC

At the Moscow offices of ewspape Novaya Gazeta, the co ido s a e sile t.

The e is a ove whelmi g se se of empti ess.

“The e is o ewspape a ymo e,” fo me chief edito Dmit y Mu atov tells me.

M Mu atov co-fou ded Novaya Gazeta mo e tha thi ty yea s ago. It became the flagship fo ha d-hitti g i depe de t jou alism i Russia, shi i g a light o huma ights abuses a d high-level co uptio .

I 2021 M Mu atov was joi t wi e of the Nobel Peace P ize fo his effo ts “to safegua d f eedom of exp essio .” The Nobel Committee oted that “six of [Novaya Gazeta’s] jou alists have bee killed, i cludi g A a Politkovskaya who w ote eveali g a ticles o the wa i Chech ya.”

It was ecog itio fo cou ageous epo ti g.

But it did ‘t p otect the pape .

“Puti issued a dec ee a d the ewspape ‘s p i ti g p esses we e atio alised,” M Mu atov explai s. “Its egist atio was evoked.”

Novaya Gazeta does etai a p ese ce o li e. But o ly just: the autho ities have blocked access to its website. It ca o ly be accessed f om ab oad, o with the help of VPNs – vi tual p ivate etwo ks used to ci cumve t est ictio s.

The ewspape ‘s difficulties eflect the b oade c ackdow o f ee speech i Russia which has accele ated si ce the K emli ‘s full-scale i vasio of Uk ai e i 2022.

“Most opi io leade s have bee decla ed ‘fo eig age ts’, ‘ext emists’ o ‘te o ists’. Seve al hu d ed,” says Dmit y Mu atov.

“Figu es va y, but at a co se vative estimate, si ce the sta t of Russia’s ‘special milita y ope atio ‘ [i Uk ai e] at least 1,500 people a e ow i p iso havi g spoke out agai st cu e t state policy. That’s th ee times mo e tha du i g the savage days of the KGB i the USSR.”

I his 1975 Nobel Peace P ize lectu e disside t A d ei Sakha ov listed the ames of mo e tha 120 political p iso e s he was awa e of i the Soviet U io . A decade late Am esty I te atio al estimated mo e tha 600 p iso e s of co scie ce i the USSR.

What the K emli had assumed i 2022 would be a sho t, successful “milita y ope atio ” has become the bloodiest co flict i Eu ope si ce the Seco d Wo ld Wa .

Yet a co fide t P eside t Puti co ti ues to p edict victo y fo Russia.

“The e will eve be ‘victo y’,” cou te s Dmit y Mu atov. “Because what has bee goi g o fo ea ly five yea s – o matte how it e ds – ca o lo ge be co side ed a victo y.

“It ca ot be a victo y whe two Slavic atio s have ipped a millio people to sh eds. O mo e tha a millio .”

“It seems to me that the situatio with Uk ai e ow is this: you ca dest oy it, but you ca ot co que it. What do I mea by dest oy? Co ti ued escalatio all the way to the use of a uclea weapo .”

Does he eally believe the K emli leade would use uclea weapo s i this wa ?

“All those political expe ts who say ‘Puti thi ks this’ o ‘Puti is sca ed of that’…they’ e all cha lata s,” claims Dmit y Mu atov. “It’s i the same league as ast ology. Nobody k ows what’s goi g o i Vladimi Puti ‘s head. A d I do ‘t k ow.

“I see thi gs o ly as a jou alist. I study big data. A d si ce the begi i g of the yea the eed to use uclea weapo s has bee me tio ed mo e tha 500 times. Whe wackos say this, I pay o atte tio . But I’ve hea d it discussed o state TV. A d at the St Pete sbu g I te atio al Eco omic Fo um, a state- u eve t, o e of the speake s talked up the use of uclea weapo s as somethi g favou able, somethi g good.”

Whe he a ou ced the mass i vasio of Uk ai e i Feb ua y 2022, P eside t Puti spoke of “e su i g the secu ity of Russia.”

“Tell me, has secu ity i c eased?” Dmit y Mu atov asks. “With Uk ai ia d o es ow attacki g wa ehouses of [Russia’s la gest o li e etaile ] Wildbe ies; with the pet ol c isis, the dis uptio to mobile i te et, the political p iso e s? Has secu ity i c eased, o ot?”

Despite opi io polls egiste i g a fall i Vladimi Puti ‘s domestic app oval ati gs, Russia’s p eside t – M Mu atov believes – etai s a tight g ip o powe .

“So y, I do ‘t believe all this talk about a split amo g membe s of the elite, about sec et co spi acies. The cou t y is u by Vladimi Puti . They’ e f ighte ed of him.

“A d this fea is ei fo ced i eve y way by his mai suppo t base: the Fede al Secu ity Se vice (FSB).”

As c itical as he is of his ow gove me t, he has few illusio s about the West.

“[Puti ] k ows ve y well the t ue value of Eu opea leade s. O the o e ha d they talk to him about huma ights. He laughs out loud because, with the othe ha d, they sig ag eeme ts – o used to sig ag eeme ts – with Russia o t adi g oil, gas, diamo ds…all that stuff. Whe they talk to Puti about Eu opea values, he t uly laughs out loud. He k ows the t ue value of people who p eached to him those values.”

I Russia M Mu atov has bee desig ated a ‘fo eig age t’, a label ofte used to pu ish c itics of the K emli . ‘Fo eig age ts’ have limited ights: they’ e ba ed f om teachi g,

f om taki g pa t i electio s; if they sell thei flat, they ca ‘t access the assets. The label is also desig ed to stigmatise, to c eate the se se i society of a e emy withi .

Yet the jou alist appea s elucta t to focus o the p essu es he’s u de , p efe i g i stead to highlight the plight of compat iots i p iso .

“What wo ies me most ight ow is that o o e i the wo ld is i te ested i the political p iso e s who we e fi st to speak out agai st the la d g ab i ou eighbou i g cou t y,” Dmit y Mu atov explai s.

He ope s a folde a d takes out a stack of la ge photog aphs: po t aits of p iso e s.

O e shows fou jou alists – A to i a Favo skaya, Ko sta ti Gabov, Se gey Ka eli a d A tyom K ige – co victed a d jailed o ext emism cha ges. They’d bee accused of li ks to the a ti-co uptio o ga isatio of the late oppositio leade Alexei Naval y.

The e’s a photo of Alexei Go i ov: a city cou cillo jailed fo “k owi gly sp eadi g false i fo matio ” about the Russia milita y afte he spoke out agai st the wa i Uk ai e.

“A d he e’s a wo de ful pia ist, Pavel Kush i ,” says Dmit y Mi atov. “A outsta di g pe fo me of Rachma i off a d Schube t.”

The musicia was a ested afte posti g a ti-wa videos. Dmit y Mu atov holds up a seco d video.

“A d this is him i his coffi .”

Pavel Kush i died i a p e-t ial dete tio ce t e du i g a hu ge st ike. He was 39.

The st eam of photos a d p iso sto ies highlights the da ge s fo i dividuals f amed as oppo e ts of those i powe . It’s a emi de of the isks that public c iticism of the autho ities a d the wa ca y.

“Does bei g a Nobel P ize lau eate give you at least some p otectio to say what you wa t?” I ask.

“This is ot a questio fo me,” eplies M Mu atov. “Whe eve you have the oppo tu ity, ask the autho ities that.”

The e is o e mo e photo. F om Ap il.

“This is the ewspape ‘s lawye whe she was waiti g to get i to the buildi g. The police we e sea chi g ou office. Thi tee hou s it took. A d they would ‘t let the lawye s i . Ou ma agi g edito Oleg Roldugi is ow u de house a est.”

Dmit y Mu atov pai ts a bleak pictu e of life i Russia fo c itics of the autho ities.

Yet the e a e mome ts of hope.

“We live i a time whe you stay quiet. But so ma y people suppo t what we do. O the st eets of Mocow, my colleagues a d I hea o ly wo ds of g atitude. They a e spoke i a whispe . But what people thi k is ve y impo ta t.”