Tesla is expected to post a surge in third-quarter results later on Wednesday, thanks to US buyers rushing to take advantage of an expiring $7,500 federal electric vehicle tax credit. But investors and analysts may be more focused on Chief Executive Elon Musk’s outlook, including whether new, cheaper versions of its Model 3 and Model Y Tesla can keep US customers buying and attract new ones in Europe and Asia.
The new trims – called Standard – are $5,000 to $5,500 cheaper than their predecessors as Tesla shrank the battery, switched to a less-powerful motor and stripped out myriad features – from rear touchscreens to seat-back pockets. The company also temporarily has slashed lease prices on the higher-priced Premium versions.
The cheaper Standard variants as well as Tesla’s offers and discounts to stave off competition globally throughout the year have pressured the company’s once-enviable margins, worrying investors.
Sales of Tesla’s aging lineup declined for the first time last year and analysts expect an 8.5 per cent fall this year, in part because of Musk’s far-right political rhetoric.
Robotaxis rollout update
Musk also will be expected to update on robotaxis, the project that he sees as the key to Tesla’s next stage of growth. Musk has said Tesla’s robotaxis will serve half the population of the US by year-end.
“What are the relevant metrics – fleet size, cumulative miles, and territories – you expect in Q4 and 2026?” was the top question for the CEO in a note by analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald on Tuesday.
While Musk has pivoted Tesla’s focus to robotics and artificial intelligence and much of the company’s $1.4 trillion valuation hangs on that bet, most of its current revenue and profit comes from vehicle sales. Tesla shares have risen nearly 10 per cent this year, propelled by a record-breaking $1 trillion pay package for Musk that the board proposed last month. The stock is still largely among the laggards in the ‘Magnificent 7’ group of mega-cap stocks.
Analysts expect Tesla to report a revenue of $26.24 billion in the quarter ended September, up 4.2 per cent from a year earlier, according to data compiled by LSEG. Tesla also will report on whether regulatory credits that it sold to makers of gasoline-powered cars to satisfy pollution standards have faded away after policy changes by the Trump administration.
Automotive gross margin, excluding regulatory credits, is estimated to be 15.6 per cent, according to 19 analysts polled by Visible Alpha. That is lower than 17.05 per cent, a year earlier.
