Oil prices edged higher on Monday, with traders responding to OPEC+ reaffirming its plan to keep production levels unchanged despite simmering geopolitical tensions and renewed supply disruptions.
Brent crude climbed $1.01, or 1.62 per cent, to $63.39 a barrel around 9:30 AM, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose $1, or 1.71 per cent, to $59.55, reported Reuters.
The gains come after both benchmarks completed their fourth consecutive month of declines last Friday, their longest losing streak since 2023, as expectations of expanding global supply had weighed heavily on sentiment.
OPEC+ Opts for Caution
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, slowed their push to regain global market share earlier in November, wary of triggering an oversupply. Their latest meeting on Sunday ended with a clear message: the group intends to proceed carefully.
OPEC+ said it “reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to continue pausing or reverse the additional voluntary production adjustments.” The announcement aligned with market expectations but nevertheless provided a psychological lift to prices.
Anh Pham, senior analyst at LSEG, said the market welcomed the decision. “For some time, the narrative has centred on an oil glut, so OPEC+’s decision to maintain its production target provided some relief and helped stabilise expectations for supply growth in the coming months,” Pham noted.
Fresh Supply Risks Add Pressure
Beyond OPEC+, supply concerns intensified over the weekend after the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which transports more than 1 per cent of global oil, halted exports. The stoppage followed a Ukrainian drone attack that damaged a mooring point at the consortium’s Black Sea terminal in Russia. The group includes Russian, Kazakh, and US shareholders, making it a critical artery for global crude flows.
US-Venezuela tensions also escalated after President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that “the airspace above and surrounding Venezuela” should be considered closed. His remarks fuelled renewed uncertainty regarding Venezuelan production, as the country remains a significant oil supplier.
Trump later told reporters he had spoken with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, though he declined to elaborate on the conversation or clarify whether his airspace warning hinted at military action. “Don’t read anything into it,” he said.
In a note to clients, ING analysts said, “Supply risks increase following additional Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and an escalation in tensions between the US and Venezuela.”
Europe Unsure About Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal
European traders, too, adjusted their outlooks as hopes for a Russia–Ukraine peace deal faded. Sentiment turned bearish in recent weeks on expectations that a diplomatic breakthrough could unleash large volumes of Russian oil into global markets. However, new attacks and rising uncertainty have reversed that mood.
Ukraine’s military said via social media on Saturday that it had struck a Russian oil refinery as well as the Beriev military aviation plant in the Rostov region, further stoking concerns about energy infrastructure vulnerabilities.
With OPEC+ holding steady and supply shocks stacking up, oil markets enter the week finely poised. Traders remain alert to developing geopolitical narratives while weighing the possibility of further disruptions or sudden reversals in global output.
