Sales of new cars in Russia are set to exceed 1.3 million units in 2025, well above previous forecasts, but the market will weaken at the start of next year due to price hikes, the Association of European Businesses (AEB) said on Thursday.
It was the AEB’s third forecast revision since July, when it predicted a 24 per cent year-on-year fall to 1.25 million units. The Moscow-based organisation is a lobby group that represents Russian and European companies.
Russia’s auto sector was plunged into crisis after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 as Western manufacturers left the country, opening the door to Chinese brands. Years of high interest rates and a slowing of the economy this year have undermined consumers’ purchasing power.
In the last three months of 2025 the market has held up better than expected as buyers have rushed to purchase new vehicles ahead of tax rises that will push prices higher.
But the expected full-year result is still 21 per cent lower than in 2024, when 1.65 million cars were sold.
“The start of next year raises concerns,” Alexei Kalitsev, chairman of the AEB’s Automobile Manufacturers Committee, said in a statement.
He said the market would be affected by persistently high interest rates, two rounds of recycling fee increases in December and January, a planned hike in value-added tax in 2026, and tighter Central Bank requirements for verifying borrowers’ income, which would reduce loan approval rates.
These factors will drive car prices up and “this will make it harder for customers to decide in favour of purchasing a new vehicle,” Kalitsev said.
AEB did not provide a forecast for 2026 but said it would release one in early January.
