Siddaramaiah vs DK Shivakumar: Will the breakfast diplomacy hold? Congress dilemma in Karnataka explained

The Karnataka power struggle, simmering for months and boiling over in the past week, took an unexpectedly choreographed turn this morning. Chief minister Siddaramaiah and his deputy, DK Shivakumar, appeared together for a breakfast meeting in Bengaluru, their first joint engagement since the renewed speculation over a midterm change of leadership. Later, the two leaders held a brief press conference, presenting a picture of unity and saying that there were “no differences” even as the political machinery around them remains anything but settled.Their appearance did little to quiet the central question: whether the Congress should persist with Siddaramaiah for a full five-year term or honour what many in the party believe was an unwritten 2023 understanding to hand over the chief ministership to Shivakumar at the halfway mark. If anything, the carefully staged optics, forced by the Congress high command, only underscored the stakes. The party’s largest state government is caught between two leaders who represent different regions, different caste networks and different styles of politics. Both are indispensable. Neither can be easily sidelined.Also Read: What happened in high-stakes breakfast meet between CM Siddaramaiah, DK ShivakumarOver the past week, Karnataka’s political theatre were shifted from Vidhana Soudha to New Delhi, where groups of MLAs landed to press their case with the high command. Religious seers spoke out, caste associations issued warnings and cabinet colleagues have chosen their words with increasing precision.

The AICC leadership might have been able to delay the decision for now but in reality confronts a dilemma that runs deeper than personalities in Karnataka: how to preserve the delicate alliance of AHINDA voters and Vokkaliga mobilisation that gave Congress 136 seats in 2023.The power-sharing question — never confirmed, never denied — has finally arrived at its moment of reckoning. Today’s show of unity may have bought time, but it has not resolved the question that will shape both the government’s stability and the party’s prospects in 2028: who should lead Karnataka for the remainder of this term, and at what political cost?The recent showdown was not merely a spat between two ambitious men. It is the product of a far deeper tension – between social coalitions and caste networks, between ideological appeal and organisational muscle, between the leader who brings votes and the one who converts those votes into victory. In Karnataka, Congress’s major bastion in the South, those forces have collided.Also Read: Did Congress high command fail to act on time, yet again?The question is no longer simply who sits in the chief minister’s chair. It is whether Congress can hold together the coalition that delivered it 136 seats in 2023, its best performance in Karnataka’s history, or whether the cracks visible recently will widen into a full-blown rupture.

A deal that was never confirmed & never denied

When the Congress swept to power in May 2023, the celebration masked an immediate dilemma. The party had fought the election with two towering leaders – Siddaramaiah, the seasoned chief ministerial face who carried the AHINDA coalition of minorities, backward classes and Dalits; and DK Shivakumar, the state party president whose Vokkaliga influence and organisational firepower had helped dismantle the JD(S) in Old Mysuru. The question of who would lead was so contentious that party negotiators, meeting in a Bengaluru hotel for hours, were forced to engineer a delicate truce. What emerged was a dual arrangement: Siddaramaiah would become chief minister, and Shivakumar would serve as deputy CM and continue as state Congress chief.Officially, that was the end of it. Unofficially, almost everyone in Karnataka politics believed there was a rotation understanding – that Siddaramaiah would govern for 2.5 years and Shivakumar would take over for the latter half. The party never confirmed it. Neither leader openly acknowledged it.But neither denied it.This ambiguity held the coalition together – until now.

Two men, two mandates

To understand why this dispute has spiraled, it is important to understand the two fundamentally different power bases Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar command.The AHINDA architectSiddaramaiah, now in his late 70s, is not just another regional satrap. Born into a Kuruba OBC family and shaped by socialist politics, he crafted AHINDA (minorities, backward classes and Dalits) as a counterweight to dominant-caste politics. Over four decades, he turned it from an idea into a social bloc.AHINDA is not a single caste. It is a mosaic stretching across Karnataka – non-dominant OBCs in the north, Dalits in central districts, Muslims in urban clusters, tribals in forest belts. In 2023, they voted overwhelmingly for Congress.In many villages, Siddaramaiah is not referred to by name but as “nam’ma manushya” (our man). His welfare agenda, free bus travel for women, cash transfers, rice entitlements, subsidised power, deepened that connection. The Karnataka State Federation of Backward Class Communities (KSFBCC) has warned Congress that any attempt to unseat Siddaramaiah in the wake of power strife in the state will have a bearing on the party.The Vokkaliga strongmanDK Shivakumar, by contrast, emerged from the rugged, faction-ridden politics of Old Mysuru. His constituency, Kanakapura, is carved out of Vokkaliga heartland. His rise has been defined by a willingness to fight, sometimes literally, for political turf.Where Siddaramaiah speaks of social justice, Shivakumar speaks of loyalty. He is the organiser who mobilises crowds, funds campaigns, manages crises, and negotiates defections. He is also Congress’s biggest Vokkaliga face at a time when the JD(S) is weakened and the BJP is eyeing gains in the region.His win in 2023 was emphatic – 75% vote share, defeating former BJP deputy CM R Ashoka by over 1.2 lakh votes. For Vokkaligas, this proved his stature. For the Congress machine, it proved his indispensability.These two power structures, AHINDA and Vokkaliga, are not interchangeable. Congress relies on both. And that dependence is central to the present crisis.

A map split between two political logics

Karnataka’s 2023 electoral map revealed a kind of dualism that Congress must navigate carefully.AHINDA-heavy Kalyana Karnataka delivered a decisive win for Siddaramaiah’s brand of welfare and identity politics.Old Mysuru, where Vokkaliga votes matter, swung unexpectedly towards Congress reflecting Shivakumar’s influence and organisational discipline.Lingayat-dominant regions, long considered BJP bastions, also saw surprising gains for Congress: the party improved from 20 seats in 2018 to 42 seats in 2023. Urban Bengaluru aligned with the party’s welfare pitch, especially among women and minority voters.Senior party officials involved in the campaign often describe the 2023 victory as the result of complementary strengths: Siddaramaiah’s ability to attract votes from marginalised groups and women, and Shivakumar’s ability to translate that support into seats through booth-level management.Both contributions were essential. And both now complicate the succession question.

Delhi becomes the battleground

In recent days, the focus of Karnataka politics shifted to Delhi. Legislators aligned with Shivakumar traveled to the capital to meet senior party leaders, hoping to press the case for a midterm transition. According to people familiar with the meetings, these MLAs emphasised the perceived understanding on rotation and argued that the party’s credibility depended on honoring it.Meanwhile, Siddaramaiah has clearly stated that he intends to complete a full term and his supporters have emphasised the importance of administrative continuity and safeguarding the welfare-driven political coalition that brought the party its 2023 mandate. The backdoor meetings, public remarks by leaders and final admission by party chief Mallikarjun Kharge shows how complicated the decision is.

The role of seers and community voices

In Karnataka, religious heads of major communities play an important role in shaping political narratives. Several Vokkaliga seers publicly signaled support for Shivakumar’s claim to the chief ministership, emphasising that the community had not held the post since the early 2000s. This created additional pressure by framing the question as one of caste representation.AHINDA-aligned voices, meanwhile, conveyed concerns – either directly or through political messaging – that sidelining Siddaramaiah could weaken the social coalition that has backed Congress for over a decade. Their argument centered on stability and the electoral risks of alienating backward-class and Dalit voters.

Siddaramaiah: Stability and mandate

Siddaramaiah has maintained publicly that he intends to complete a full five-year term, saying earlier this year that he had been sworn in to govern for the entire duration. His position is anchored in administrative logic: major welfare programs require continuity and the party won the mandate with him as the projected chief ministerial face.Supporters of Siddaramaiah often point to the strong performance of AHINDA regions in 2023, arguing that any sudden shift in leadership could dilute the political momentum built around welfare schemes and social justice politics.

Shivakumar: Organisation and representation

Shivakumar has largely avoided direct confrontation in public, consistently saying that the party leadership would decide the matter. But his camp’s position has been clear: many MLAs believe he was central to the 2023 victory and that the understanding reached during the post-election negotiations should be upheld.In addition to his organisational strengths, the political significance of the Vokkaliga community works in Shivakumar’s favour. With JD(S) weakened and BJP attempting to make inroads in Old Mysuru, elevating Shivakumar could help consolidate a valuable electoral base.

A dilemma unlike any other

The Congress’s central leadership must weigh several competing risks:If Siddaramaiah continues for the full term:

If Shivakumar takes over midterm:

If Congress announces a future-dated transition:

Congress has faced similar leadership battles in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, and eventually lost the power in these states.

What happens next

The Congress high command – Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge – is expected to take a decision soon. Reports suggest the timing is tied to the upcoming Parliament session and the state assembly calendar.The possible outcomes are straightforward:

Each scenario carries political risks that will reverberate through 2028, when Karnataka returns to the polls.

The larger question

The debate over succession has exposed a deeper question for Congress: Can the party manage a coalition built on two separate pillars when it must choose only one leader to represent it?Karnataka delivered Congress not just a numerical mandate, but a symbolic victory against the BJP’s national dominance. It showcased a model built on welfare, caste coalition-building and organisational renewal.If Congress handles the transition smoothly, Karnataka could remain a stronghold and a template. If it mishandles it, the state could fall out of the party’s hands, in a familiar cycle of its recent history.Either way, the central challenge remains unchanged:Congress must choose a leader without losing any camp.And in Karnataka, that has never been an easy choice. Go to Source