Oil prices edged higher on Monday, recovering from steep losses in the previous session, as hopes grew that potential talks between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could ease tensions between the world’s two largest economies and biggest energy consumers.
Brent crude futures rose by 87 cents, or 1.39 per cent, to $63.60 a barrel in early trading today after a sharp 3.82 per cent decline on Friday, which took the benchmark to its lowest level since May 7.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 87 cents, or 1.48 per cent, to $59.77 per barrel, also recovering from a 4.24 per cent drop that brought prices to their weakest point since early May, reported Reuters.
Markets Look To A Trump-Xi Meeting For Relief
The renewed optimism follows escalating trade friction last week when China expanded its export controls on rare earth elements, a move that drew a swift response from Washington.
US President Donald Trump retaliated by announcing plans to impose 100 per cent tariffs on all Chinese exports bound for the United States, alongside new export controls on ‘any and all critical software’ starting November 1.
These developments have rattled global markets, sparking fears of deeper disruptions to supply chains and dampening demand forecasts for commodities such as oil.
However, traders are now watching for signs of a thaw, as the two leaders could meet later this month on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea.
US Trade Representative Jamison Greer confirmed that a Trump-Xi meeting “could still happen,” raising hopes that a dialogue may help calm nerves in the global trading system.
Analysts Expect Partial Easing, But Warn Of Risks
Goldman Sachs analysts, in a recent note, said markets are closely assessing whether the latest measures will be enforced or used as “negotiating leverage ahead of bilateral talks.”
“The most likely scenario seems to be that both sides pull back on the most aggressive policies and that talks lead to a further – and possibly indefinite – extension of the tariff escalation pause reached in May,” the analysts said.
However, they warned that the possibility of renewed tensions cannot be ruled out. A further escalation could lead to higher tariffs or stricter export restrictions, at least temporarily, with significant implications for global supply chains and high-tech manufacturing.
Oil prices have been highly sensitive to developments in the US-China trade dispute. Earlier this year, during the height of the tensions in March and April, crude markets saw steep declines as fears of slower global economic growth weighed on demand outlook.
The latest rebound reflects cautious optimism, though traders remain wary of further volatility. Analysts believe that even minor diplomatic progress could lend short-term support to prices, while a breakdown in talks might trigger renewed selling pressure.
Geopolitical Tensions In The Middle East Add To Uncertainty
Adding to the global geopolitical backdrop, US President Trump announced on Sunday that the Gaza conflict has ended as he travels to Israel. His visit coincides with the expected release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners under a fragile ceasefire deal he helped broker.
While the development may ease some immediate tensions in the Middle East, a key oil-producing region, market participants continue to monitor the situation closely for any signs of instability that could affect supply routes or energy prices.
