President Donald Trump’s trademark one-on-one dealmaking strategy, which has for long been touted as his diplomatic edge is now facing a major stress test as tensions with China escalate and markets reel.
China Strikes With Export Controls
Late on Wednesday night, Beijing’s Ministry of Commerce announced sweeping new export restrictions on rare earths and other critical materials essential for US defence and technology manufacturing. While the initial shock was contained within specific sectors, broader market reaction came soon after Trump’s Friday Truth Social post.
Around 11 AM New York time, the president threatened a “massive increase” in tariffs on Chinese goods, sending Wall Street into its steepest decline in six months. Hours later, he announced an additional 100 per cent tariff effective from 1 November, and signalled forthcoming export controls on critical software, which are measures that analysts warned could push the two economies towards “effective decoupling”.
Trade Talks In Jeopardy
The renewed hostilities come just weeks before Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping were due to meet in South Korea to finalise a broader trade pact. At the centre of those talks are competing export control regimes – the US’s restrictions on semiconductors and AI chips versus China’s curbs on critical minerals.
Jon Hillman, a senior fellow for geo-economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, told Bloomberg, “The Chinese saw the reaction and leverage they had with export controls earlier this year, so it’s not surprising they would head into these talks to try to stack the deck in their favour.”
Truce Unravels
A fragile calm had followed Trump’s May truce with Beijing, which paused new tariffs after a rapid escalation in April that briefly saw US levies reach 145 per cent. China, in turn, lifted its ban on exporting critical minerals. However, tensions resurfaced as China reportedly reduced soybean imports from the US — a move Trump dismissed as a negotiating tactic.
With Beijing’s latest announcement, both sides once again appear poised on the edge of a trade war.
Markets React Sharply
Friday’s turmoil underscored the volatility of Trump’s bilateral approach. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted steep declines, while the Cboe Volatility Index spiked to its highest level since April. Nvidia Corp, which is a central player in the semiconductor dispute, tumbled nearly 5 per cent.
Dan White, head of research at Blue Creek Capital, was cited by Bloomberg, saying, “Sentiment in the markets was showing a rosy scenario, but the reality is there was a lot of risk and uncertainty out there, so today was a wake-up call for a lot of people.”
China Holds The Leverage
Wendy Cutler, vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute and a former US trade negotiator, wrote on LinkedIn that “the US is now dealing with a more assertive, well-prepared, less US-dependent and self-confident Beijing than during Trump 1.0… The past 24 hours leave no doubt that those days are over.”
Former Commerce Department official Nazak Nikakhtar told Bloomberg that “China holds the levers and is using the levers to substantially weaken our manufacturing sector including semiconductors, AI and defence articles.”
Additionally, the unnamed Ministry of Commerce spokesperson said in the statement, “The relevant US statement is a typical example of ‘double standards’,” as per an AFP report.
As both sides prepare for potential talks in South Korea, experts say Trump’s “handshake diplomacy” which has proven effective with smaller nations, may be proving fragile when tested against a resurgent Beijing.
