What is at stake for Hamas as its negotiator gathers for talks with Israel and US in Egypt?

As negotiations between Israel and Hamas resume in Egypt, all eyes are on Khalil al-Hayya — the man leading the Palestinian group’s delegation in talks that could determine the future of Gaza.

The discussions, which begin this week, mark the most serious diplomatic engagement between the two sides in more than two years of conflict, raising hopes of a ceasefire and a comprehensive hostage-prisoner exchange.

These talks are being held in the Egyptian resort city of Sharm el-Sheikh, with mediation efforts led jointly by the United States, Egypt, and Qatar.

The Donald Trump-led United States has taken an unusually direct role in pushing both sides toward an agreement that could end the fighting and set the foundation for a post-war Gaza.

Who are the participants at the Sharm el-Sheikh negotiations?

According to official announcements, Hamas’s delegation to Egypt is headed by Khalil al-Hayya, a senior member of the group’s political bureau and one of its most prominent surviving figures.

Al-Hayya arrived in Egypt on Sunday, leading a team of negotiators to “begin discussions on mechanisms for a ceasefire, the withdrawal of occupation forces and a prisoner exchange,” according to a statement released by Hamas.

The meetings scheduled for Monday are al-Hayya’s first formal engagement since Israel conducted an airstrike in Doha, Qatar, in September, which targeted senior Hamas officials.

That strike killed six people, including al-Hayya’s son, but failed to eliminate the leadership core.

Hamas later confirmed that al-Hayya and several others survived. In his first televised appearance since that attack, broadcast from Qatar earlier on Sunday, al-Hayya expressed grief over the loss of his son and others but made no mention of the upcoming talks or the possibility of a ceasefire.

Israel, for its part, announced that its delegation would be led by Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, a close confidant of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Dermer and his team are tasked with negotiating the initial phase of what Washington has called a “comprehensive roadmap” toward ending hostilities in Gaza.

Representing the United States are Trump’s son-in-law and former White House adviser Jared Kushner, alongside special envoy Steve Witkoff, reported AFP.

Both were dispatched to the region to finalise details of a potential deal that would see the release of all remaining hostages held in Gaza in exchange for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli custody.

Qatar, a key regional mediator, has also sent its foreign minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, to participate in the discussions.

How is Trump involved in the Gaza ceasefire talks?

The negotiations in Egypt are being closely shaped by US President Donald Trump, who has taken personal ownership of the peace effort.

Trump, who announced on Saturday that talks were “proceeding rapidly,” wrote on Truth Social, “These talks have been very successful, and proceeding rapidly. The technical teams will again meet Monday, in Egypt, to work through and clarify the final details. I am told that the first phase should be completed this week, and I am asking everyone to MOVE FAST.”

A day earlier, he had warned Hamas to reach an agreement swiftly, saying, “Hamas must move quickly, or else all bets will be off. I will not tolerate delay, which many think will happen, or any outcome where Gaza poses a threat again. Let’s get this done, FAST.”

Trump also acknowledged that “Israel has temporarily stopped the bombing in order to give the Hostage release and Peace Deal a chance to be completed.”

However, Gaza’s civil defence agency reported continued airstrikes overnight, with at least 57 people killed, including 40 in Gaza City alone.

The White House later confirmed that Kushner and Witkoff’s trip to the region was directly ordered by the president to “address the finalisation of details on the release of hostages and to discuss the deal pushed by the US president to bring an end to the conflict between Israel and Hamas.”

Both Hamas and Israel have indicated preliminary acceptance of the US-drafted framework, which seeks to end the war and create conditions for long-term stability in Gaza.

The plan represents a 20-point proposal formulated under Trump’s directive, and it lays out a sequence of steps that would begin with an exchange of captives and culminate in a ceasefire and reconstruction phase.

What we know about Trump’s 20-point proposal?

The proposal, shared by the White House, outlines a phased process under which the Gaza Strip would become a “deradicalised terror-free zone” and would be rebuilt to serve the needs of its civilian population.

It promises an immediate halt to hostilities once both sides formally agree to its terms.

Under this framework, Israeli forces would withdraw to designated lines while all combat operations, including air and artillery strikes, would be suspended.

The document specifies that “battle lines will remain frozen until conditions are met for the complete staged withdrawal.”

The first stage would involve the release of hostages held in Gaza, both living and deceased. Within 72 hours of Israel’s public acceptance of the agreement, all hostages would be returned.

In return, Israel would release 250 prisoners serving life sentences and an additional 1,700 Palestinians detained after the October 7, 2023, attacks — including all women and children.

For every Israeli hostage whose remains are returned, the plan stipulates that Israel will release the remains of 15 Gazans.

Once the exchanges are completed, members of Hamas who commit to peaceful coexistence and agree to decommission their weapons would be granted amnesty. Those wishing to leave Gaza would be allowed safe passage to other countries willing to receive them.

The plan also prioritises the immediate flow of humanitarian assistance into Gaza, specifying that aid quantities must match or exceed the levels established in the January 19, 2025 agreement.

These include the restoration of critical infrastructure such as electricity, water, and sewage systems, along with the rehabilitation of hospitals and bakeries and the removal of rubble blocking major roads.

Gaza’s governance would transition to a “technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee” tasked with managing municipal services and public administration.

The document clarifies that “no one will be forced to leave Gaza,” ensuring freedom of movement for residents who wish to stay or return.

Israel, under the agreement, would not occupy or annex the territory.

What may be the points of contention?

Despite Hamas’s public indication of support for several aspects of the proposal — including the release of all hostages and the transfer of Gaza’s administration to a neutral technocratic body — it has not yet committed to the most contentious demand: disarmament.

Israel has made it clear that any final agreement must include a complete decommissioning of Hamas’s military capabilities.

Hamas, in its official statement, said that discussions concerning the “future of Gaza and the rights of the Palestinian people” are still underway “within a national framework,” implying that the group intends to remain involved in shaping the territory’s political trajectory.

The second phase of the negotiations, expected to follow the initial exchanges, will tackle these unresolved issues. These include the disarmament question, security guarantees for Israel, and mechanisms to prevent a resumption of hostilities.

Analysts note that the talks in Sharm el-Sheikh represent the first significant opening for diplomacy in over two years of war.

Yet the complexity of the issues and the long-standing mistrust between the parties suggest that progress, even if swift in the short term, will be difficult to sustain without continued international mediation.

What is at stake for Hamas?

Hamas enters these negotiations under considerable strain. Once the dominant force in Gaza, the group has seen its military and political wings decimated after sustained Israeli operations.

According to intelligence assessments cited by regional officials, much of Hamas’s senior command in the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades — its military arm — has been eliminated.

Izz al-Din al-Haddad, who now leads the Brigades, is believed to have succeeded Mohammed Sinwar, brother of Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of the October 7, 2023, attacks.

Both Sinwar brothers were killed in Israeli strikes earlier this year.

Political leaders such as Ismail Haniyeh and Saleh al-Arouri have also been killed, leaving only a few senior figures like al-Hayya to manage what remains of the organisation’s political leadership.

Meanwhile, conditions in Gaza have deteriorated to catastrophic levels. Local health authorities report that more than 67,000 people have been killed and 169,000 injured since the war began.

Over 90 per cent of Gaza’s 2.2 million residents have been displaced multiple times, with many now living in makeshift shelters or tents. Reports from humanitarian agencies describe widespread famine and critical shortages of medicine, food, and clean water.

Hamas’s territorial control has also eroded, with Israeli forces maintaining positions across much of northern and central Gaza. In several areas, local Palestinian militias and clans, reportedly encouraged by Israeli intelligence, have assumed limited administrative responsibilities.

These developments have led to increasing friction between Hamas fighters and other Palestinian groups, resulting in intra-factional clashes and further loss of public confidence.

The group’s internal security apparatus has also been implicated in arrests, executions, and torture of Palestinians accused of collaborating with Israel, contributing to what observers describe as a breakdown of law and order in the enclave.

According to a public opinion poll conducted in May 2025, roughly half of Gaza’s population expressed support for anti-Hamas demonstrations.

Experts on Palestinian politics have noted that, given its current state of depletion, Hamas may have little choice but to evolve into a purely political entity if it hopes to survive.

Countries such as Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt are expected to play key roles in facilitating any ideological or structural transformation Hamas may undergo.

However, its long-standing Islamist ideology, rooted in rejection of Israel’s legitimacy, remains a significant barrier to such change.

What next?

The outcome of the Sharm el-Sheikh negotiations carries implications that extend well beyond Gaza.

For the United States, success would represent a major diplomatic victory for Trump, who has personally invested political capital in the process.

For Israel, the talks offer a pathway to secure the release of hostages while maintaining long-term security assurances.

Netanyahu’s government has faced domestic and international criticism for its handling of the conflict, and any breakthrough could bolster his standing.

However, the Israeli prime minister also faces scepticism at home from hardliners who oppose concessions perceived as legitimizing Hamas.

For Hamas, the negotiations may represent a last opportunity to secure relevance in Gaza’s post-war future.

Acceptance of a ceasefire, a prisoner exchange, and administrative handover to a technocratic body could enable the organisation to reposition itself politically, albeit at the cost of abandoning its role as an armed resistance movement.

With inputs from agencies

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