- Indian markets likely to open higher, tracking Asian gains.
- Global markets cautiously optimistic on US-Iran ceasefire.
- Oil prices rise amid persistent regional tensions.
Indian equity markets are likely to begin Friday’s session on a positive note, tracking firm cues from Asia-Pacific peers, even as investors remain cautious amid lingering geopolitical uncertainties linked to the US-Iran situation.
Early indicators pointed to a firm opening for domestic benchmarks, with the GIFT Nifty suggesting gains in line with the broader uptick seen across Asian markets.
However, traders are expected to stay alert, as sentiment continues to be shaped by evolving developments in West Asia and the durability of the recent ceasefire.
Asian Markets Edge Higher, But Caution Persists
Asian equities moved higher in early trade, though the upside remained limited as investors questioned whether the US-Iran ceasefire would hold.
MSCI’s broad Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) rose 0.5 per cent, supported by a strong 1.9 per cent gain in South Korea’s Kospi. Japan’s Nikkei 225 also advanced 1.5 per cent, reported Reuters.
Despite the gains, market participants remained wary amid fragile progress in parallel geopolitical developments, including ongoing tensions involving Israel and Lebanon.
Ceasefire Optimism Faces Fresh Tests
While the ceasefire between the US and Iran had earlier sparked a recovery in global markets, confidence appears to be tentative.
Concerns resurfaced after Iran flagged continued Israeli military action in Lebanon as a sticking point, raising doubts over the stability of the broader agreement.
Analysts noted that while the initial risk-on sentiment lifted markets, recent developments have tested that optimism, prompting investors to reassess positions.
Oil Prices Tick Higher Amid Supply Concerns
Crude oil prices edged higher as tensions in the region persisted.
Brent crude rose 1 per cent to $96.83 per barrel during Asian trading hours. The Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy corridor, continues to see significantly reduced shipping activity, with volumes far below normal levels.
The partial disruption to this route, which typically handles a substantial share of global oil and gas flows, has kept supply concerns alive and supported prices.
Trump Warning Adds To Market Uncertainty
Geopolitical uncertainty intensified after US President Donald Trump criticised Iran’s handling of oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz, signalling frustration over compliance with the ceasefire understanding.
His remarks underscored the fragile nature of the agreement and added to investor caution.
Global Cues Mixed; US Markets Offer Limited Direction
Overnight, US markets ended on a positive note, with the S&P 500 rising 0.6 per cent.
However, US futures were largely flat in early Asian trade, indicating a lack of clear direction for global markets. The US dollar remained slightly stronger, with the dollar index rising 0.1 per cent to 98.92.
Recent economic data showed a mixed picture, with weekly jobless claims increasing while continuing claims declined to their lowest level since May 2024. Market expectations around US monetary policy have also shifted, with traders adjusting timelines for a potential rate cut.
What To Expect In Indian Markets Today
Domestic markets are expected to remain sensitive to global developments, particularly those linked to the US-Iran situation and crude oil movements.
While the positive start indicated by GIFT Nifty may support early gains, volatility cannot be ruled out as investors track geopolitical headlines and assess the strength of the ceasefire.
