Bangladesh is set to witness a potentially game-changing political moment on Tuesday as Tarique Rahman, acting chairperson of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and heir to the influential Zia family, returns home after nearly 17 years in exile in London.
The 60-year-old elder son of former prime minister Khaleda Zia is scheduled to arrive at Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport in Dhaka at 11:55 am local time, according to party officials. From the airport, Rahman will head straight to a reception venue and later visit his ailing mother, who is undergoing treatment for multiple health issues at a private hospital in the capital.
Return Amid Unrest and Violence
Rahman’s homecoming comes against the backdrop of renewed unrest in Bangladesh. Tensions have escalated following the killing of Sharif Osman Hadi, a leader of the Inqilab Mancha cultural group and a prominent face of last year’s anti-government protests, at a hospital in Singapore. Separately, a person was killed in a crude bomb explosion in Dhaka’s Moghbazar area a day earlier, underlining the fragile law-and-order situation.
BNP Emerges as Front-Runner
The BNP has emerged as the leading contender in the general elections scheduled for February, following the dramatic collapse of the Awami League government led by former prime minister Sheikh Hasina. Her administration was toppled during a student-led violent movement—often referred to as the July Uprising—on August 5, 2024.
The interim government, headed by Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus, later disbanded the Awami League through an executive order under the country’s Anti-Terrorism Act, effectively removing BNP’s main rival from the electoral fray.
Tarique Rahman and India: A Delicate Reset?
Rahman’s return is being closely watched in India, where policymakers see both risks and opportunities. Historically, New Delhi’s ties with the BNP have been strained. However, recent signals suggest the possibility of a cautious reset.
The radical Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami, which was BNP’s ally during its 2001–2006 stint in power, has now emerged as its principal rival ahead of the polls. With the traditionally pro-India Awami League barred from elections, Indian officials may view a Rahman-led BNP as a more predictable, liberal and democratic alternative.
While Rahman has been vocal in criticising aspects of Bangladesh’s engagement with India—particularly over the Teesta water-sharing agreement—he has also kept distance from Pakistan. His oft-quoted line, “Not Dilli, not Pindi, nor any other country. Bangladesh first,” underscores a nationalist stance that New Delhi may find more acceptable than the perceived pro-Pakistan tilt of the Yunus-led interim administration.
That said, India’s decision to shelter Sheikh Hasina remains a significant diplomatic hurdle in New Delhi’s equation with Rahman and the BNP.
Modi’s Gesture to Khaleda Zia
Earlier this month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed concern over Khaleda Zia’s worsening health and offered “all possible support”. The BNP publicly welcomed the gesture, conveying its “sincere gratitude” to Modi—an exchange seen by observers as a small but notable signal of thawing ties.
As Tarique Rahman steps back onto Bangladeshi soil, his return is poised to reshape domestic politics—and could also redefine Dhaka’s foreign policy equations in the months ahead.
