Kathmandu, Jul 7 (PTI): Communities across the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) face an increasingly dangerous pattern this Monsoon, with longer dry spells punctuated by sudden bursts of intense rainfall capable of resulting in flash floods, landslides and glacier-related hazards, according to ICIMOD.
HKH is a 3,500-km-long mountain system spanning eight countries, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan.
The warning follows recent cloudburst-induced flooding in Pakistan occupied Kashmir’s Gilgit-Baltistan and flooding triggered by intense rainfalls in Arunachal Pradesh, even as the HKH Monsoon Outlook 2026 projected below-normal seasonal rainfall across most parts of the region, according to a report published by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).
“The biggest misunderstanding is that less seasonal rainfall means lower flood risk,” said Saswata Sanyal, Disaster Risk Reduction Specialist at ICIMOD.
“Seasonal forecasts describe average conditions over several months, not what happens in a single valley. Under El Niño, long dry spells can be interrupted by intense local storms that trigger devastating flash floods and landslides.” “While El Niño is expected to suppress seasonal rainfall across much of South Asia, short-lived weather systems can temporarily override that pattern, producing intense localised rainfalls capable of causing severe flooding,” warns the report.
The result is a Monsoon that is becoming more uneven and difficult to predict, with prolonged dry conditions increasing pressure on agriculture and water supplies while isolated extreme rainfall events continue to threaten lives and infrastructure.
“Above-normal temperatures are expected to further increase risks in glacier-fed river basins across the Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra. Warmer conditions accelerate glaciers and snowmelt, adding more water to rivers already swollen by intense rainfall,” according to ICIMOD report.
“The recent flooding in Pakistan’s Thore Valley demonstrates that hazards in the HKH are no longer occurring in isolation,” said Manish Shrestha, Hydrologist at ICIMOD.
“Heavy rainfall, glacier melt, unstable slopes and fast-rising rivers can interact to create cascading disasters. Preparedness must reflect these compound risks rather than treating each hazard separately.” Scientists say governments should prepare simultaneously for drought, heat stress, flash floods, landslides and glacier-related hazards rather than viewing them as separate scenarios.
Special attention is required for settlements along riverbanks, steep mountain slopes and rapidly expanding urban areas across Nepal, northern and northeastern India, Pakistan and other vulnerable mountain regions, where fragile geology, rising temperatures and expanding infrastructure continue to increase exposure, according to the report.
With weeks of the Monsoon still ahead, experts say the greatest danger is assuming that fewer rainy days mean fewer disasters. This year’s Monsoon demands preparedness for drought and floods at the same time, it added. PTI SBP GSP GSP
(This story is published as part of the auto-generated syndicate wire feed. No editing has been done in the headline or the body by ABP Live.)
