- Iran conflict disrupts global fertiliser supply, risking food security.
- Rising prices and shortages may halve crop yields significantly.
- Africa faces critical food production challenges due to dependency.
- Global food prices could rise, exacerbating inequality and hunger.
US Iran War Food Crisis: The ongoing conflict in Iran is beginning to send shockwaves through global supply chains, with experts warning of a potential food security crisis, particularly in vulnerable regions like Africa. Disruptions to fertiliser supplies and rising costs could sharply reduce agricultural output in the months ahead.
Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Yara International, cautioned that the situation could trigger a “global auction” for fertiliser, where wealthier nations outbid poorer ones, deepening global inequality, as reported by BBC.
Fertiliser Shock Threatens Crop Yields
Holsether highlighted that while Africa has the potential to become a major food producer, it remains heavily dependent on imported fertiliser. If prices continue to rise, many farmers may be unable to afford essential inputs, leading to significantly lower crop yields.
Yara, which operates across 60 countries and supplies 140 markets, has already reported an 80% increase in fertiliser prices since the conflict began. A key factor is the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a third of the world’s fertiliser supply typically passes.
Supply Chain Strain and Regional Impact
Analysts at S&P Global Market Intelligence note that restrictions on fuel and fertiliser are already placing pressure on global food supply chains. Without sufficient nitrogen fertiliser, yields for certain crops could fall by up to 50% in a single growing season.
The impact, however, will vary across regions. In Europe, planting cycles are already underway, while in parts of Asia, the agricultural season is just beginning. This means the full effect of shortages may only become visible later in the year, when reduced harvests translate into higher food prices.
Farmers Face Mounting Pressure
Farmers worldwide are grappling with rising input costs, including fuel, energy, and fertiliser. However, crop prices have not increased at the same pace, squeezing margins and limiting their ability to absorb shocks.
Paul Teng warned that while some countries may have enough fertiliser for the current planting season, a prolonged disruption could threaten staple crops such as rice in the months ahead.
Risk Of Global Food Inequality
The United Nations has cautioned that a prolonged conflict could lead to a bidding war for food supplies. Wealthier nations may be able to secure sufficient resources, but poorer countries risk being priced out of the market entirely, raising the spectre of widespread hunger.
In the UK, industry groups are already warning of rising consumer costs, with food inflation projected to climb significantly by the end of the year. Experts say this could mark the beginning of a broader crisis, where fertiliser shortages cascade into global food affordability challenges.
